Economy and the future: 1)As Canada’s population growth slows, an economic shift emerges; 2)Canada’s next chapter starts now, Signal 49 research (formerly conference board of Canada); 3)Unemployment rate up, 84,000 jobs lost in ‘very bad’ February jobs report; 4)Prices: Gas prices expected to tumble Thursday, as markets stabilizes

1)As Canada’s population growth slows, an economic shift emerges

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Rikita Dubey, March 8, 2026.

The effects of slowing population growth have started to show up in some sectors of the economy, more than a year after the federal government reduced its immigration targets.

This year is expected to be the second in a row with zero population growth in Canada after the federal government reduced its immigration targets 16 months ago. While fewer people in the economy generally means less aggregate spending, economists say there are offsetting economic activities that can mute the overall impact of slowed population growth, and it’s still a bit early to point to broad trends in the data. 

But within specific sectors, they acknowledge signs of a shift in the economy are emerging.

One of the clearest effects of slowing population growth has been in real estate on the rental market, said Shelly Kaushik, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, in an interview.

Newcomers, such as temporary foreign workers and international students, show up in very specific areas of the economy, she explained, and this is one of them.

“One of the fastest effects we’ve seen is deceleration in rental prices across the country, but especially in places like Ontario and (British Columbia), where there is and was certainly a larger share of international students coming into the country,” she said.

Asking rents in Canada fell two per cent year-over-year in January to an average of $2,057, marking the 16th consecutive month of annualized rent decreases, according to a report from Rentals.ca and Urbanation. 

Rental prices are likely to stagnate until around 2028, when population growth is expected to normalize, said TD Bank economist Marc Ercolao. 

A drop in demand for rental units has also begun trickling into the overall housing market.

Smaller properties, such as condos, are now seeing a glut of inventory of new builds, but there are hardly any buyers, because renting out the units is a riskier proposition than it was a few years ago.

Ercolao said the impacts are being felt beyond the purpose-built rentals and into the secondary rental market, where condo owners rent out their units.

There has also been a slowdown in investor activity in the housing market, which would be a drag on home building this year, he said. 

“You’re getting this period of a real stagnation in the housing market through this year and into next year, in part driven by population,” Ercolao said.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. last month reported the agency’s six-month moving average for annual starts declined 3.5 per cent for the fourth consecutive month.

But the effects of slowing population growth haven’t been the same across all housing types.

“Detached (housing) market isn’t seeing as much of an effect since a very small share of newcomers to Canada aren’t really engaged in that part of the market,” Ercolao said.

“That area, at least in housing, is shielded from these impacts.”

All that eventually trickles down to how Canadians live, experts say. 

Canadians may have started to see signs of change in their standard of living, Kaushik said. 

“When population was rising, economic growth was not keeping up at that same pace,” she said. “We really saw a standard of living essentially stagnating for a little bit there.”

This was showing up in high rental prices, a competitive jobs market and home purchases. 

“That’s what they were feeling, even if they necessarily couldn’t point to that,” Kaushik said.

Statistics Canada reported real GDP rose 1.7 per cent in 2025 overall, cooling from two per cent growth in each of the previous two years and marking the slowest pace of annual growth since 2016, outside the COVID-19 pandemic. 

It was a year marked by wild swings in trade policy, as well as better-than-expected resilience. And economists note that it’s difficult to isolate population growth from broader economic factors at any time, let alone this one.

“There are impacts showing up in certain segments of the economy. But you’re getting a lot of either offsets or disruptions from other areas,” Ercolao said.

One such reprieve comes from the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts, helping lower the cost of borrowing and push spending higher. 

Meanwhile, “Canadian consumers (have) been fairly resilient,” Ercolao said.

“That’s been probably one of the bigger offsetting factors.”

Still, risks of stagnating population growth remain.

Cynthia Leach, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada, said while it’s a one-time adjustment, Canada hasn’t really seen a population decline like this before.

“That could have an effect on how people perceive the strength of the economy and their willingness to spend,” she said.

Growing geopolitical uncertainties, such as the upcoming Canada-United States-Mexico trade agreement, or CUSMA, could undermine the country’s growth projections. 

Kaushik said the economic growth is slower than it should be. A part of that potential output is determined by the population growth, and since it’s slowing, the potential growth is slowing with it. 

“That’s something that the Bank of Canada is going to be watching closely,” she said. “But again, it’s one of the many issues that they’re dealing with.”

2)Canada’s next chapter starts now, Signal 49 research (formerly conference board of Canada)

Canada has strong foundations.

We are resourceful, internationally engaged, and home totalented people. Yet many Canadians are feeling strain. Costs are rising, services are underpressure, and rapid global change is testing our readiness.

This moment calls for clarity,practical thinking, and coordinated action to shape what comes next.To help spark that action we hosted two events at George BrownPolytechnic’s Waterfront Campus in Toronto.

These gatherings were partof Bold Ideas for Canada, the flagship convening series of our Centre for Canadian Growth and Prosperity, which brings Canadians together to turnideas into action through constructive dialogue. These gatherings were also our first in-person events under our new name, Signal49 Research.

Leaders from business, government, civil society, Indigenous communities,and the academy came together with a shared purpose. Through openand practical discussion, participants explored where Canada must bemore ambitious, where systems must evolve, and where partnerships mustbe strengthened to secure long-term prosperity.

A clear message emerged. Canada has the capacity to lead in a rapidlychanging world if we are prepared to think bigger and act with urgency. As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney noted in his January 2026 speechin Davos, Switzerland, middle powers that move early and move together can help shape what comes next.

Canada is well positioned to be one of those countries. However, we cannot afford small thinking. The pages that follow capture the ideas, insights, and practical pathwaysshared during these two events. They reflect thoughtful debate, ambitiousthinking, and a strong desire to move from discussion to implementation. We are deeply grateful to everyone who contributed their time andperspective. We hope these ideas inspire continued collaboration anddecisive action for Canada’s future.

Susan BlackPresident and CEO, Signal49 Research

Full Article: https://www.signal49.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/bold-ideas-for-canada_feb2026.pdf

3)Unemployment rate up, 84,000 jobs lost in ‘very bad’ February jobs report

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Craig Lord, March 13, 2026

Statistics Canada said the economy faced sharp job losses in February in a report that suggests the labour market is struggling after nearly a year of U.S. tariff pressures.

“This was a very bad report on almost every single measure,” CIBC senior economist Katherine Judge said.

In its monthly labour force survey, Statistics Canada said Friday that employers collectively shed 84,000 positions in February, driving the unemployment rate up two-tenths of a point to 6.7 per cent.

February saw more than 100,000 jobs lost in full-time work, while private sector employment fell by 73,000 positions.

A Reuters poll of economists heading into the report Friday expected a slight rise in the unemployment rate, but also called for a gain of 10,000 jobs last month.

Despite a flurry of hiring in late 2025, back-to-back months of job losses to start 2026 mean the economy has added just 80,000 positions over the past six months.

Statistics Canada said that, compared to the same month a year ago, total employment was little changed in February.

Judge said measures of employment based on payroll data — which are less timely but somewhat less volatile than the monthly labour force survey — have been showing weakness in the labour market for a while.

“I would say that you have seen the resilience fade,” she said.

Speaking to reporters during a media availability in Norway on Friday, Prime Minister Mark Carney pinned the blame for the recent spate of job losses on Canada’s fractious trade relationship with the United States.

“Given the scale of the trade actions, the uncertainty that is associated with the trade actions in the United States, that is causing big adjustments in the economy,” Carney said.

Alberta MP Garnett Genuis, employment critic for the federal Conservatives, said Carney’s policies were failing to improve job prospects for Canadians as the prime minister nears a year in the office. In a media statement, he highlighted a rebound in the youth unemployment rate to above 14 per cent last month as cause for concern.

Workers aged 15 to 24 faced a loss of 47,000 jobs last month, Statistics Canada said, while men between the ages of 25 and 54 also faced steep job losses in February.

“As employment continues to fall, Liberals have ignored our proposals and failed to put forward any solutions to their jobs crisis,” Genuis said.

Judge said that while average hourly wage gains accelerated to 3.9 per cent annually in February, some of that is because the calculation now includes a smaller share of young workers, who are typically paid less.

The wholesale and retail trade sector led job losses last month, with other industries in the services side of the economy also contracting. Goods-producing industries like construction and manufacturing shed positions, while the transportation and warehousing industry and public administration reported gains.

Judge said labour market weakness had been largely contained to sectors like manufacturing that are most exposed to U.S. tariffs. But with only three sectors reporting job gains last month, she said those cracks are spreading.

“This is very worrisome for the Bank of Canada,” she said.

The central bank is set for an interest rate decision on Wednesday after holding its key rate at 2.25 per cent in January. Monetary policymakers will get a look at inflation data for February on Monday before making the call.

TD Bank senior economist Andrew Hencic said in a note to clients Friday that the shrinking labour force, a rising unemployment rate and steep job losses make the latest employment data a “decidedly weak report.”

Hencic said the economy is struggling to gain traction in the face of structural changes, such as ongoing trade uncertainty.

He also flagged that the war in the Middle East is a “wild card” for the economy in terms of how long the conflict will last. An extended disruption will mean a prolonged bout of inflation tied to higher energy costs, which Hencic said will have knock-on effects for consumer spending and growth more broadly.

Judge said that, from the Bank of Canada’s perspective, the labour market softness in February should offset inflationary pressures from the recent oil spike.

She said CIBC’s call is still for the central bank to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year, though weakness in data like the report Friday tilt risks toward a further cut.

Financial market odds for the rate decision next week are 90 per cent in favour of a hold, slightly reduced from before the jobs report, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

Statistics Canada reported that Quebec lost 57,000 jobs in February, which the agency called the first significant loss of employment in the province in over four years. The jobless rate in the province rose 0.7 percentage points to 5.9 per cent last month.

British Columbia, meanwhile, shed 20,000 positions, and Saskatchewan and Manitoba also lost jobs.

4) Prices: Gas prices expected to tumble Thursday, as markets stabilizes

Courtesy Barrie360.com
By Ian MacLennan, March 10, 2026

Oil and gas prices fell sharply on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the war in Iran was “very complete, pretty much”.
Here at home, that could mean a pleasant surprise on Thursday.

“If you can hold off and avoid going to a gas station for at least the next day, you’re bound to save a bit of money when it comes down to the full price we pay at the pumps,” according to Dan McTeague, President of Canadians for Affordable Energy, who spoke to Barrie 360 on Tuesday.

McTeague is predicting the pump price could drop about eight cents per litre at 12:01 a.m. Thursday, while diesel fuel will slide about 12 cents per litre.

On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) held a second meeting with G7 nations to discuss options for stabilizing the global oil market, including releasing millions of barrels of crude from countries’ stocks.

McTeague tells Barrie 360 the markets are responding to Trump’s comments and the possibility that G7 countries and others might release oil from various reserves

As of Tuesday afternoon, the price of a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, was just under $90 US, a far cry from the $120 US per barrel on Monday afternoon, before crashing to just below $85 US.
The Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route crucial to global energy supplies, remains blocked.

On Monday, Trump warned Iran not to threaten the shipping route.
“If Iran does anything that tops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” the U.S. president wrote on Truth Social.

Asked what reassurances McTeague could provide consumers that the sticker shock at the pumps is over, he said Iran could always do something foolish.
“But, it’s pretty clear that the upper hand is very much in the possession of both Israel and the United States.”
with files from The Associated Press