CUSMA Agreement: Not Yet: 1)U.S. not renewing trade agreement with Canada and Mexico in ‘current form’; 2)Carney doesn’t expect ‘drama’ as U.S. prepares to blow past trade deal deadline

1)U.S. not renewing trade agreement with Canada and Mexico in ‘current form’

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Kelly Geraldine Malone, July 1, 2026

The United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the U.S. is not renewing the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement “in its current form” — but the trade agreement will remain in place as negotiations continue.

“The United States will continue to engage with Mexico and Canada to address the Agreement’s shortcomings and our trade deficits with these countries,” Greer said in a statement Wednesday.

This decision triggers a rolling annual review for up to a decade, at which point it will expire if an extension isn’t agreed upon.

Greer had a virtual meeting with Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Mexico Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard earlier Wednesday to discuss the trade pact’s future. It was the deadline for all three partners in the pact, better known as CUSMA, to indicate whether they wanted the deal renewed.

Canada and Mexico had previously said they were looking for a 16-year extension.

“We agreed on the importance of continuing our discussions and identifying ways to ensure trade and investment frameworks between Canada, the United States and Mexico continue to support North American prosperity and competitiveness,” LeBlanc said in a statement. 

“For Canada, this includes substantive discussions with the United States on addressing sectoral tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, autos and lumber.”

The trade agreement has shielded Canada and Mexico from many of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Both countries are being slammed by Trump’s separate sectoral tariffs on industries like steel, aluminum, automobiles and cabinetry. 

CUSMA was negotiated during the first Trump administration to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. The sometimes tumultuous negotiations served as an early test of Ottawa’s approach to the Trump administration but ultimately all three countries hailed the agreement as a success.

But Trump has continued to cast doubt on CUSMA’s future since his return to the White House and his embrace of a sweeping tariff campaign. He has called the agreement “irrelevant” and has said it may have served its purpose.

CUSMA remains in place unless one of the partner countries gives six months’ notice that it is pulling out. 

Trade negotiations between Mexico and the United States have launched but Ottawa and Washington have not started official talks yet.

LeBlanc said Canada is approaching the trade discussions “from a position of strength and with the goal of preserving and strengthening one of the most successful trading relationships in the world.”

“At a time of global economic uncertainty, Canada is a stable, reliable and trusted partner,” he said. “We have the energy and natural resources the world needs, a world-class workforce, and a predictable business environment attracting the highest investment in decades.”   

Carlo Dade, director of international policy and the New North America Initiative at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, said the blown deadline doesn’t mean much to the future of CUSMA “as long as there is constructive work and dialogue occurring.”

“I think the market is adjusting to a new normal of uncertainty with the U.S.,” Dade said in an email. “That said, awareness of the reality also means greater awareness of the cost.”

Dade said some members of the Trump administration have indicated that the U.S. still values the trade agreement. 

Greer has said there are “pillars” of the continental trade pact that work well. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and senior Trump adviser Peter Navarro have been much more critical.

“Trump is negotiating in public, so we have to discount, heavily discount, what he says, view it through the lens of his seeking leverage,” Dade said.

Andrew Hale, a fellow at Advancing American Freedom — a conservative advocacy group founded by former U.S. vice-president Mike Pence — said CUSMA was a major achievement during the first Trump administration and he credits former United States trade representative Robert Lighthizer for following the law while being a tough negotiator.

Trump’s trade actions are now sowing “chaos” and many people in the administration “don’t get Canada,” Hale said.

“They’re so unpredictable and it’s so chaotic. If I knew what their strategy was, I could make a gold mine. It’s like asking me if I have a crystal ball.”

While trade talks will continue, the uncertainty discourages long-term investment because of the deep integration among all three countries, Hale added. If negotiations continue for a long time, he said, it could diminish North America’s global competitiveness.

Annual consultations could also bring increased trade frictions, Hale said, because they “are never usually harmonious with the Trump administration.”

“They push people right to the edge of the cliff every time they have these negotiations,” he said.

— With files from Sarah Ritchie in Ottawa

2)Carney doesn’t expect ‘drama’ as U.S. prepares to blow past trade deal deadline

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Kelly Geraldine Malone, June 30, 2026

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday he doesn’t expect any drama as officials from Canada, the United States and Mexico prepare for a virtual call Wednesday about the future of the critical continental trade agreement.

“We’re expecting, you know, a constructive exchange. I wouldn’t expect any drama tomorrow,” Carney told reporters in Kuujjuaq, Que. “I’m not looking for my pen.”

The United States is set to officially inform Canada and Mexico on Wednesday of its intentions for the continental trade agreement, known in Canada as CUSMA. All signs indicate Washington will blow past the July 1 date without agreeing to renew the pact.

The July 1 deadline for indicating support for renewal is a mandatory process written into the text of the agreement. CUSMA will remain in place after Wednesday no matter what the Trump administration does.

Canada and Mexico have said they want a 16-year extension.

Once the Trump administration fails to sign on for the longer-term deal, an annual rolling review of the agreement starts and continues for up to 10 years, at which point CUSMA would expire if it’s not renewed.

Scott Lincicome, vice-president of general economics at the Washington-based Cato Institute, said the review process — if it’s done right — offers an opportunity to fix flaws in the agreement and address various bilateral irritants.

“But there’s a very wide gulf between fixing a good agreement and torching it,” Lincicome said during a Cato panel discussion last week in Washington. “And it’s clear which side we should all be on.”

Lincicome said that while there’s no reason to “freak out” about the U.S. missing this week’s deadline, “there is some uncertainty that is increased because of these annual reviews.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has offered mixed messages about the future of the agreement. He told reporters in France where he was attending the G7 summit earlier in June that he would rather “leave it unsigned” or “have it terminated.”

When asked to clarify those statements, Trump said, “I would rather not have the agreement but I may sign it.”

CUSMA stays in place unless one of the partner countries gives six months’ notice that it is pulling out. Canada and Mexico both have indicated they want to keep the trilateral deal in place.

CUSMA was negotiated during the first Trump administration to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. At the time, Trump called it the best trade agreement ever.

Republican Rep. Adrian Smith said the deal was a huge victory and has been a boon for agriculture producers and American consumers.

Smith, who represents a district in Nevada, said while he’s not a fan of tariffs, “I think it’s reasonable to expect other countries to make some concessions, you know, having the access to our markets that they have, and they need to give us access to theirs.”

“I would say Canada did not expect Mr. Trump re-entering the White House as he is right now,” Smith said at the Cato event. “So they’re going to have to deal with that.”

Trade negotiations between Mexico and the United States have launched but Ottawa and Washington have not started official talks yet.

United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said there are “pillars” of the continental trade pact that work well. He also has said he’d be open to two separate bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico.

The continental trade agreement has shielded Canada and Mexico from many of Trump’s tariffs. The current global 10 per cent U.S. duty does not apply to CUSMA-compliant goods.

Canada’s former chief trade negotiator Steve Verheul said the CUSMA tariff exemption shows the United States “does attach a considerable amount of importance” to the deal.

There’s also support from American industries, the public and many Republican lawmakers, Verheul said at an event for Bank of Montreal clients Monday. A bipartisan group of more than 100 House lawmakers wrote a letter to the Trump administration in December expressing support for the agreement.

The largest challenge for Canada will be Trump’s separate tariffs on industries like steel, aluminum, automobiles and cabinetry, Verheul said.

“I don’t think there’s been anything close to a good deal on the table so far,” he said.