The Economy: 1) Modest March jobs growth stems ‘bleeding’ in the labour market: economists; 2) Oil prices sink and US stock futures jump as US and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire; 3) High diesel prices could hit consumers harder than gas costs — for months

1. Modest March jobs growth stems ‘bleeding’ in the labour market: economists

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Craig Lord, April 10, 2026

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday showed little improvement in March after a volatile few months that saw employment levels surge and then drop.

The agency said employers collectively added 14,000 jobs in March, roughly in line with economists’ expectations.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7 per cent.

CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham said he was expecting a larger rebound in the March jobs data after January and February cumulatively shed more than 100,000 positions. That has partially offset a rapid run-up in hiring to close out 2025.

“We’re not adding that many jobs, we don’t really have that much in terms (of) labour force growth either. And that’s keeping the unemployment rate fairly stable, albeit at a level that we still think is elevated,” Grantham said.

Growth in March was led by a category StatCan calls “other services,” which includes repair and maintenance work in the economy.

The professional, scientific and technical services sector, the natural resources industry and tariff-sensitive manufacturing also posted job gains in the month.

Year-over-year, the manufacturing sector has shed 44,000 positions compared with March 2025 when the United States first imposed tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and autos.

Grantham said employment in tariff-stricken sectors seems to have stabilized at a lower level, but other parts of the economy aren’t really adding jobs either right now.

The finance, insurance, real estate and leasing sector and the food and accommodations industry led losses in March.

Marc Desormeaux, vice-president of policy and economist at the Business Council of Canada, said in an email Friday that the latest labour force data suggest tariff softness has spilled into the services side of the economy.

“The bleeding stopped after two consecutive monthly employment declines, but March’s data continue the trend of soft labour market performance to start this year,” he said.

A loss of 19,000 jobs in British Columbia last month followed a similar loss in February, pushing the province’s unemployment rate up to 6.7 per cent. That’s the highest level for the province’s jobless rate in about a decade, outside the COVID-19 pandemic.

Average hourly wages across the country, meanwhile, rose 4.7 per cent year-over-year — a jump from 3.9 per cent in February and the fastest pace since October 2024.

StatCan said some of the recent increase in wages is due to the “composition of employment,” meaning the economy isn’t adding or maintaining as many lower-paying jobs that typically pull down the wage growth average.

Controlling for compositional factors leaves average annual wage growth at 3.6 per cent in March, StatCan said, roughly in line with January and February’s figures.

Grantham cautioned not to expect the same pace of pay growth as the economy remains sluggish.

“It was a surprise that we saw such a big acceleration today, but unfortunately I don’t think that will last, given general softness in some other labour market indicators,” he said.

Friday’s data marks the Bank of Canada’s last look at the labour market before its next interest rate decision on April 29. The central bank held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25 per cent in March.

Bets on an April rate cut rose somewhat in financial markets after Friday’s jobs report, but odds were still nearly 93 per cent in favour of a hold from the Bank of Canada at the end of the month, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

TD Bank senior economist Andrew Hencic said in a note to clients Friday that the outlook for the economy “remains fraught” with the Iran war’s energy shock roiling prices and no clarity over the direction of the conflict despite hopes for a lasting ceasefire.

He said weak demand in the sluggish economy should offset some of the inflationary impact from the war, allowing the Bank of Canada to stay on the sidelines for now.

“With the economy continuing to progress in fits and starts, and uncertainty sky-high, the outlook is for subdued job growth and a steady unemployment rate,” Hencic said.

Grantham agreed that the Bank of Canada remains in “wait-and-see” mode after Friday’s mild jobs report.

Absent the Iran war oil shock, he said the central bank might have been thinking about interest rate cuts right now to support the economic recovery.

But now monetary policymakers have to be prepared to guard against the possibility of spreading inflation pressures from the war, which Grantham said has tied their hands when it comes to lowering the policy rate.

He noted, however, that a soft labour market helps to insulate the economy against widespread inflation.

“Given the fact that the labour market is quite weak, that will make it harder for an energy price shock to become broader inflationary pressures. So we still think the Bank of Canada can and will remain on hold throughout this year and just see how things unfold,” Grantham said. 

2) Oil prices sink and US stock futures jump as US and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire

Courtesy Barrie360.com and The Associated Press

By Stan Choe, April 8, 2026

Oil prices plunged below $100 a barrel and Asia markets and U.S. stock futures jumped after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 4.8% and South Korea’s Kospi gained 5.6%. Futures for the S&P 500 advanced 2.3% as of 9:30 p.m. EDT, while Dow futures rose 2%.

Futures for U.S. crude oil sank 14.3% to $96.83 a barrel and Brent crude oil, the international standard, dropped 13.3% to $94.74. Oil prices had spiked because the war snarled the production and transportation of crude in the Persian Gulf. Much of that oil exits the gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to reach customers around the world, but Iran had blocked it to enemies.

Late Tuesday, Trump said he was holding off on his threatened attacks on Iranian bridges, power plants and other civilian targets. Iran’s foreign minister said passage through the strait would be allowed for the next two weeks under Iranian military management.

The dramatic moves in prices are just the latest swings to hit financial markets since late February because of constantly shifting signals about when the conflict may end. Even with word of a ceasefire, neither Iran nor the United States said when it would begin, and attacks took place in Israel, Iran and across the Gulf region early Wednesday.

Earlier, U.S. stocks swung sharply during regular trading as uncertainty about the war with Iran increased after Trump had threatened that a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if Iran does not meet his deadline at 8 p.m. Eastern time to open the Strait of Hormuz.

The S&P 500 fell as much as 1.2%, but stocks rallied at the end of trading after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend his deadline for another two weeks and asked Iran to open up the strait for the same amount of time.

The S&P 500 erased all its losses and ended with a modest gain of 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 85 points, or 0.2%, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.1%.

They’re the latest swings to hit financial markets since late February because of deep uncertainty about when the fighting may end.

Oil prices were likewise shaky. The price for a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude to be delivered in May briefly climbed above $117 before settling at $112.95.

Oil prices have spiked because the war has snarled the production and transportation of crude in the Persian Gulf. Much of that oil exits the gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to reach customers around the world, but Iran has blocked it to enemies.

The concern in markets has been that a prolonged disruption will keep oil prices high for an extended period and send a painful wave of inflation crashing through the global economy. Trump kept traders on edge by making a series of threats to blow up Iranian power plants, only to delay several times.

The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline across the United States has leaped to $4.14, according to AAA. It was below $3 a couple of days before the United States and Israel launched attacks to begin the war in late February.

In the bond market, Treasury yields eased on word of a potential cease-fire. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.24% from 4.30% earlier Tuesday.

That’s still well above its 3.97% level from before the war, and the rise has pushed up rates for mortgages and other loans going to U.S. households and businesses, which slows the economy.

3)High diesel prices could hit consumers harder than gas costs — for months

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Christopher Reynolds, April 10, 2026.

High diesel prices continue to ripple through the economy and put pressure on consumers — with no end in close sight — even as a shaky ceasefire in the Middle East offers a hint of relief to global commodities.

The average wholesale price of diesel remained more than 55 per cent above pre-war levels in the last few days, according to Natural Resources Canada data, despite the U.S. announcement of a two-week pause in hostilities with Iran on Tuesday.

While diesel prices are expected to ease somewhat following the deal, experts say elevated fuel costs will see higher price tags slapped on items ranging from groceries to garments for months to come.

“A load going from Toronto to Montreal is going to be $300 more than it was six weeks ago,” said Mike Millian, president of the Private Motor Truck Council of Canada, which represents about 200 companies with in-house fleets including Tim Hortons, Home Hardware and Loblaw.

“That’s going to have to be passed on to the consumer.”

Meanwhile, damaged infrastructure, supply disruptions and processing bottlenecks caused by attacks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz mean diesel will be flowing from refineries more slowly for a significant chunk of the year.

The narrow waterway, where blockages have kept oil and natural gas locked in the Persian Gulf and out of the hands of customers across the globe, remains effectively shut down. Many crude distillation facilities have slashed production, sending global prices surging. 

“All of the modes of transit are now out of alignment and there’s going to be a long time ahead before anything is remedied and put back in place,” said Vancouver-based transportation consultant Mary-Jane Bennett.

Truckers who haul produce, clothes and pharmaceuticals across the continent to Canadian shelves can absorb only a small fraction of the resulting cost increase. That holds equally true for shippers facing fuel surcharges from carriers and for retailers who form the front line of sales.

“When you’re on a margin of about two per cent and you’re getting cost increases of 10 and 15 per cent, and whether you bake it into the price or you add it as a surcharge, you have to pass that on,” said Gary Sands, a senior vice-president at the Canadian Federation of Independent Grocers, which represents about 6,900 stores.

“If you don’t, you’re not going to be an independent grocer; you’re going to be an out-of-business grocer.”

Produce often travels thousands of kilometres by tractor-trailer to reach Canadian stores and warehouses. Meat and dairy require refrigerated trucks that guzzle more diesel per kilometre. Those three food categories have already seen price hikes, Sands said.

“We’re importing about 80 per cent of our produce into the country. Diesel is where that impact is more immediate and significant,” he said.

While the rising cost of gasoline at the pump may be top of mind for many Canadians, it’s diesel and other petroleum derivatives such as jet fuel that have seen the biggest jumps in price. The average retail price of gasoline sat roughly a third higher than pre-war levels near the end of the week, having barely budged after news of the ceasefire broke, according to Natural Resources Canada.

Retail diesel prices actually inched higher on Wednesday — the day after the temporary truce was announced — before dropping two per cent below Tuesday’s yearlong high of just over $2.39 per litre.

“There’s potential for this actually to get worse before it gets better,” said Ross Prentice, co-founder of Evotrux, an online platform connecting shippers and carriers.

Diesel powers industries ranging from agriculture to mining and manufacturing, and the bigger expenses they face are likely to show up as higher price tags on consumer items.

The shortages emerging from the conflict have also snarled supply chains as factories slash production.

“Our makers in Asia, they’re telling us to watch out. Prices are going to increase because their prices are going to increase to get the materials,” said Francois-Xavier Robert, co-founder of Montreal-based parka maker Quartz Co.

Production can be delayed due to procurement problems with components ranging from eyelets to zippers and trim, he said.

“There’s stuff they’re just not going to be able to get at all. They have shortages, not just overcharges,” he said of suppliers.

More than 80 per cent of the oil and natural gas that normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asian markets. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have been rationing fuel for weeks.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected this week that the price of Brent crude, the international standard, would be 39 per cent higher this year than last, with global production of oil — from which diesel is derived — returning “close to pre-conflict levels in late 2026.” That’s assuming hostilities cease for good by the end of the month and traffic through the strait “gradually resumes.”

“Hard to say what our future’s going to look like. It’s been so volatile the last five years it’s pretty tough to make guesses,” said Ted Daniel, CEO of Ontario-based Titanium Transportation Group.

“Take it day by day and try and figure things out.”