Prices & counterfeit bills: 1)Prices: Some alcohol prices in Ontario could rise in the new year; 2)Significant increase in the circulation of counterfeit bills in retail stores

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Allison Jones, December 23, 2025

Some alcohol prices in Ontario could rise in the new year, with several changes to the alcohol marketplace set to take effect.

The changes flow from Premier Doug Ford’s plans to expand and modernize how alcohol is sold in the province, which has seen beer, wine and coolers now sold in convenience stores, a sharply reduced footprint for The Beer Store and a shifting system for empties.

When the expansion was announced last year, the government said all retailers would have a 10 per cent wholesale discount from the LCBO until an overall new wholesale pricing structure is rolled out in 2026. This spring, the government temporarily increased that discount to 15 per cent for bars, restaurants and convenience stores, citing the need to protect them from impacts of U.S. tariffs.

That is set to end Dec. 31, and some of those businesses say it may mean they have to pass their price increase on to their customers.

Restaurants already operate under tight margins, with 41 per cent unprofitable, said Kelly Higginson, president and CEO of Restaurants Canada. It’s reasonable to assume that at least some will pass on their higher alcohol costs as of Jan. 1 due to the reduced discount.

“We have also seen double-digit inflationary pressures around food, around insurance, around commercial rent — you kind of name it, it’s gone up,” she said in an interview. 

“We haven’t raised menu prices as much as our input costs have been increasing, but we will have to raise prices for alcohol. We will not have an option, because we can’t continue to raise prices on food.”

Anne Kothawala, the president and CEO of the Convenience Industry Council of Canada, also said it is possible some corner stores may have to increase alcohol prices. But what they and many others in the alcohol marketplace are perhaps more concerned about is a looming new cost structure.

The LCBO is becoming the exclusive wholesaler and is setting a new formula adding taxes, markups and fees to a supplier’s set price, which some are worried will prohibitively raise prices for some retailers.

Major retailer associations wrote to Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy in the fall requesting a proposed new pricing model be delayed from its planned Jan. 1 implementation date, in a letter obtained by The Canadian Press.

“As we analyze the LCBO’s proposed pricing model, significant discrepancies have emerged between LCBO’s projected impacts and industry estimates of how much prices will increase for retail and hospitality buyers,” said the letter signed by the convenience industry council, Restaurants Canada, Beer Canada, Drinks Ontario, Spirits Canada and the Ontario Restaurant, Hotel and Motel Association.

The government has been “listening to stakeholder feedback” and has delayed the implementation of that new pricing system until April, a spokesperson wrote in a statement.

Some in the industry are hopeful that means the LCBO will make changes to the formula before then.

“We continue to work with the government over our concerns with the proposed pricing structure to ensure that any changes reflect the unique nature of our industry and maintain prices for consumers,” Kothawala wrote in a statement. 

Another factor that could increase prices for consumers is a change to alcohol recycling. 

Under the expansion announced last year, all grocery stores selling alcohol were supposed to accept empties starting Jan. 1, but they balked at that and recently reached a deal to avoid it, with The Beer Store getting a continued responsibility for the deposit return program.

Consumers will continue to exchange empties for their deposits at Beer Store locations, with grocers footing the bill. They may well pass some or all of the costs of that system onto consumers by raising prices.

Grocers are pleased that bars, restaurants and convenience stores will now be receiving the 10 per cent wholesale discount instead of 15 per cent, because it “levels the playing field,” said Gary Sands, senior vice-president of public policy and advocacy with the Canadian Federation of Independent Grocers.

Grocery stores had not received the temporary bump to 15 per cent and were not happy that they had to both incur extra recycling costs — convenience stores were exempt from that obligation — and receive a smaller discount.

2) Significant increase in the circulation of counterfeit bills in retail stores

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Sébastien Auger, December 21, 2025

The Retail Council of Canada is sounding the alarm about the significant increase in circulation of fake $20, $50, and $100 bills since November.

The association reports that it has detected more counterfeit bills in one month than in the entire previous year.

Counterfeiters have refined their techniques to such an extent that it has become nearly impossible to detect these counterfeit bills, even for a trained eye, says Michel Rochette, president of the RCC’s Quebec division.

“We have seen a recent resurgence of very high-quality bills. They are extremely credible; you can’t tell them apart from the real thing. The hologram is really well done. This means that, as we have been saying for a long time, we are facing increasingly structured and organized criminals,“ he says.

It is no coincidence that this increase is occurring in the weeks leading up to Christmas.

“Unfortunately, it’s a great time to issue counterfeit bills because stores are very busy; it’s the most important time of the year. With so many people shopping at the same time, it’s more difficult to tell the difference and notice if something is wrong,” Rochette says.

He does not know the extent of the phenomenon.

“Obviously, it’s not easy to quantify. But there really is an explosion of counterfeit bills, to the point where even the Quebec provincial police has put up posters in certain places warning people to be careful,” he says.

Rochette urges both consumers and merchants to be vigilant.

“It reminds us how important it is to inform and educate as many merchants as possible. The more people who are aware, the more we can try to limit the spread of these counterfeit bills.”

He also urges politicians to give police forces more resources to tackle this scourge.

“We are asking the federal and provincial governments to show some teeth. Since we’re talking about organized and structured groups, this often involves violence. There is a real obligation to take this issue extremely seriously because anything that is left unaddressed will only get worse.”

However, Rochette welcomes the Carney government’s decision to grant new powers to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police to fight organized crime in the retail industry.

“This will give us a helping hand. Now, at the provincial level and in Quebec, it is absolutely essential that the government give police forces more resources to investigate and be on the ground.”

According to the latest national data, theft and fraud-related losses in businesses amount to $9 billion annually.