Post-Federal Election: 1) Seven foreign policy challenges facing PM Mark Carney that aren’t about Donald Trump; 2) Ontario riding flips to Liberals after validation process; 3) John Hogan named N.L.’s premier designate after winning Liberal leadership contest; 4)Three quarters of Canadians say misinformation affected the federal election: poll
1) Seven foreign policy challenges facing PM Mark Carney that aren’t about Donald Trump
Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press
By Dylan Robertson, May 4, 2025.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has many foreign policy issues on his plate — and they’re not all about U.S. President Donald Trump.
Here are six of the key challenges Ottawa will be navigating in the coming months during a turbulent time in world politics.
Trump in Alberta for G7
In just six weeks, Carney will welcome his leading counterparts to Kananaskis, Alta., for the Group of Seven leaders’ summit.
Trump is invited to attend, as are the leaders of France, Germany, Japan, the U.K. and Italy, as well as the European Union. The summit sees G7 leaders take stock of the world’s challenges and sign a communiqué that sets the tone for other industrialized democracies.
When Canada last hosted a G7 summit in 2018, Trump refused to sign the closing communiqué, stormed off early and called Carney’s predecessor Justin Trudeau “very dishonest and weak” in a spat over steel and aluminum tariffs.
Ottawa is trying to keep Washington engaged in the G7. It put forward maritime security as a shared concern for countries sharing three oceans with Canada. Leaders at the summit are expected to discuss “shadow fleets” — vessels smuggling sanctioned goods — the recent rash of sabotage attacks on undersea cables, illegal fishing and biodiversity loss.
Canada must also decide which countries and institutions it will welcome as guests; South Africa is hosting the G20 summit in November and could be invited to Kananaskis. Carney already has invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Defence deals with Europe
Carney is widely expected to attend the annual summit of the NATO military alliance, which starts June 24 in the Netherlands.
The meeting comes as Europeans accuse Trump of undermining the alliance by suggesting that the U.S. wouldn’t defend countries that don’t meet defence spending targets.
Canada has never met the NATO defence spending guideline — 2 per cent of gross domestic product — since the alliance agreed upon that goal in 2006.
The meeting also comes amid fears that Russia will acquire more territory in Ukraine and invade other countries like Latvia, where Canadian troops are serving as part of a mission aimed at deterring Russian aggression.
The European Union is leading an effort to boost defence spending and military industries in Europe, to make the continent less reliant on the U.S. Carney has said he wants to be part of this project, called ReArm Europe. He also has called Canada “the most European of non-European countries.”
Relationship with China
During the campaign, Carney described China as “the biggest security threat to Canada,” citing Beijing’s tacit support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, foreign interference and the Arctic.
China rejects all of these claims and says it wants to partner with Canada to stand up against American “bullying.” Chinese officials have suggested the two countries could rally other nations to prevent Washington from undermining global rules.
Beijing has imposed tariffs in retaliation for Canada following the U.S. in restricting Chinese electric vehicles and steel. Those tariffs are mostly hurting farmers in Western Canada and premiers in the region have pushed Ottawa to do more to lift restrictions on canola and pork.
Still, China has displaced large amounts of American oil with imports of Canadian crude, which hit a historic high in March. While China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner and says it can collaborate in areas like clean energy, Carney has signalled caution.
“We want to diversify with like-minded partners,” he said in March. “The partners in Asia that share our values don’t include China.”
Reviving ties with India
In late 2022, the Liberals made India a focus of their Indo-Pacific strategy, describing the country as a democratic nation with strong trade potential.
That all changed after the June 2023 assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.
Within months, Trudeau accused India of involvement in Nijjar’s death. Relations have been strained ever since, with the RCMP saying it has evidence that New Delhi is behind numerous crimes targeting Sikh-Canadians.
A year ago, India’s foreign minister declared Canada to be “our biggest problem” and in October 2023 pointed the finger at the Liberal government, arguing Canada is enabling a separatist movement that calls for a Sikh homeland called Khalistan to be carved out of India.
Carney said during the election campaign he wants to pursue trade with India, adding it could play an outsized role in ending the trade wars.
“There are strains on that relationship that we didn’t cause, to be clear. But there is a path forward to address those, with mutual respect,” he said on April 26.
The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has long been aligned with Canada’s Conservatives, though Modi was quick to congratulate Carney on his election win.
Expanding trade ties
Canada and the U.K. have been operating under a pared-down trade agreement since Brexit and talks on a full agreement have been suspended, largely over Canada’s reluctance to open up its dairy sector and Britain’s distaste for hormone-treated beef.
Canada’s envoy to London Ralph Goodale told Politico recently that trade talks are unlikely to advance if Britain doesn’t drop “unscientific” limits on beef or resolve the “Brexit screw-up” of failing to negotiate its own cheese import quota for Canada when it left the European Union.
A fresh approach might be coming this year. Goodale said in February he expects to be replaced this spring and Britain’s high commissioner in Ottawa started his term three months ago.
Ottawa has long argued that Canadian businesses haven’t taken advantage of trade deals Canada has signed with countries such as Chile and South Korea.
The global south
Promising to buck the trend of Western countries scaling back on foreign aid, Carney has vowed not to lower Canada’s aid spending or development funding.
That promise comes as refugee camps run out of food aid and as United Nations agencies ponder mass layoffs.
“This is a time for Canada to lead … in ensuring that we play a role that Canada always has, which is to be generous and to be effective in our support of those who are most vulnerable around the world,” Carney said.
It’s not clear what Carney’s approach to foreign aid might look like. Trudeau’s government was criticized for releasing an Africa strategy years late, with zero new funding for initiatives intended to boost investment and trade with the booming continent.
Southeast Asian leaders, meanwhile, are wondering whether Carney will follow Trudeau’s example by attending the annual summit of the ASEAN bloc, which declared Canada a strategic partner in 2023. The region has growing economies and an interest in Canadian commodities and nuclear energy.
The Middle East
Carney is widely expected to follow Trudeau’s approach to the Israel-Hamas war, a policy Jewish, Muslim and Arab groups have all widely criticized as being vague. The war has led to large protests in Canada and prompted a rise in hate crimes.
The prime minister recently joined peers in criticizing Israel for blocking aid to Palestinians in Gaza, which the United Nations describes as “cruel collective punishment.”
Carney said during the campaign that Canada must call out Iran for destabilizing the Middle East through proxies like Hamas.
2) Ontario riding flips to Liberals after validation process
Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press
By Catherine Morrison, May 3, 2025
Ontario’s Milton East–Halton Hills South riding has flipped to the Liberals after a vote validation process.
Elections Canada’s validated results indicate that Liberal candidate Kristina Tesser Derksen received 32,130 votes, while Conservative candidate Parm Gill received 32,101 votes – a difference of 29 votes.
The Liberals’ minority government is now back up to 169 seats, while the Conservatives now count 143 seats.
On Thursday, the federal riding of Terrebonne in Quebec went from the Liberals’ win column back to the Bloc Québécois after a postelection vote-validation process.
Milton East–Halton Hills South is a new federal riding created as part of the redistribution process.
It includes parts of the previous ridings of Milton, which was held by the Liberals, and Wellington–Halton Hills, which was held by the Conservatives.
Preliminary results showed that Gill had won the riding with 32,186 votes, with Tesser Derksen coming in second with 31,888 votes – a difference of 298 votes.
The validated results indicate there were 412 rejected ballots in the riding.
Elections Canada spokesperson Matthew McKenna says the validation process involves a returning officer examining the record of votes counted at polling stations to catch and correct any data entry or calculation errors in a riding.
McKenna says a recount happens automatically if the difference in votes between the first- and second-place candidates is within one one-thousandth of the total number of votes received.
3) John Hogan named N.L.’s premier designate after winning Liberal leadership
Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press
By Sarah Smellie, May 3, 2025.
Liberals in Newfoundland and Labrador elected John Hogan as leader and the province’s new premier designate on Saturday.
Hogan, the 47-year-old former health and justice minister, handily beat rival John Abbott in a vote released at the party’s convention at a hotel in downtown St. John’s.
He picked up 77.4 per cent of the points needed under the party’s voting system, which assigns points for the number of votes won in each of the province’s 40 electoral districts. Nearly 14,000 party members registered to vote.
Hogan will take over from Andrew Furey, who announced in February he would step down as premier.
To chants of “Hogan, Hogan,” the new leader told party supporters he wants to ensure the province lives up to its full potential.
“I’m proud to be the leader of such a strong group of representatives and together we will work every day to deliver real economic and social benefits to every corner of our province,” said Hogan, who added it was an “incredible honour” to become the province’s 15th premier.
“I want Newfoundlanders and Labradorians to know, I’ve got your back,” he said. “I put my name forward for this position because I know our province is at an important crossroads. I have a clear vision of what must be done to accomplish our goals, balance our priorities and harness our opportunities.”
Hogan’s victorious campaign zeroed in on health care, affordability and finalizing a high-stakes energy deal with Quebec that promises $225 billion in revenue over the next 50 years.
“We are here at the beginning of a new era,” he said. “The MOU with Hydro Quebec is an extraordinary opportunity and one that can transform, not just the fortunes, but the entire spirit of our province. Think of the doors this will open for us, our children, our grandchildren and we know how important it is to get this deal across the line.”
Hogan inherits considerable challenges, including a projected provincial net debt of $19.4 billion for a province of about 540,000 people who are spread out across a vast area, mostly in coastal fishing towns home to fewer than 1,000 people.
It is difficult and expensive to provide services to such a sparsely populated region where many small communities are hours away from larger centres.
The province is also home to the most rapidly aging population in the country; roughly a quarter of its residents are 65 years or older.
Hogan worked as a lawyer at a small firm before he was elected to government. His legal work, he has said, was a lot like running a small business. He’s also been the justice minister and the attorney general.
Hogan has two young children, aged eight and three, and has said that he understands how difficult it is to afford to raise a family.
“We’re ready to fight for our economy,” he said Saturday. “To provide support for seniors and increase our focus on families and affordability.”
Hogan will soon have to lead the governing Liberals into a provincial election, which must take place before October.
Prime Minister Mark Carney congratulated Hogan on winning the leadership via social media, saying there is a “lot of work for us both, together, to build one strong Canadian economy.”
Carney also thanked Furey for his service to the province.
“Your years as Premier will have a lasting impact on your province for generations. I wish you and your family the best in this next chapter — and feel confident that you will always be a strong advocate for NL.” Carney wrote on X.
— With files by Keith Doucette in Halifax.
4) Three quarters of Canadians say misinformation affected the federal election: poll
Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press
By Catherine Morrison, May 3, 2025.
More than three quarters of Canadians believe misinformation had an impact on the outcome of the federal election, a new poll suggests.
The Leger poll, which sampled more than 1,500 Canadian adults from April 29 to May 1, suggests that 19 per cent of people think false information or misinformation had a major impact on the election.
Almost a third (32 per cent) said it had a moderate impact, while 26 per cent said it had a minor impact on the election’s outcome.
Only nine per cent of Canadians said misinformation had no impact on the election at all.
The poll, which was conducted online and can’t be assigned a margin of error, suggests that people in Alberta were the most likely to think misinformation affected the election, at 86 per cent.
Seventy-nine per cent of people in Quebec, 76 per cent of people in Ontario and 73 per cent of people in B.C. said misinformation had an impact.
While 80 per cent of men said misinformation played a role, 74 per cent of women said the same.
Voters aged 18 to 34 were most likely to think misinformation affected the election, at 81 per cent, compared to 77 per cent of people aged 35 to 54 and 74 per cent of people aged 55 and older.
Liberal supporters were the least likely to think misinformation had a role in the election, at 74 per cent, compared to 83 per cent of Conservative voters and 87 per cent of NDP voters.
Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice-president for Central Canada, said there has been lots of talk over the last few years about foreign interference in Canadian politics and the issue may be in the back of voters’ minds.
During the election campaign, Canadian security officials said they spotted a foreign online operation targeting a federal Conservative candidate opposed to Chinese government policies. The Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections Task Force also said it spotted an online information operation linked to the Chinese government that focused on Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Laurie-Anne Kempton, assistant secretary to the cabinet for communications, said in late April that Canadians could head to the polls with full confidence in the integrity and security of the system.
Federal officials also said that voters should be on the lookout for online disinformation tied to the election debates.
Enns said that “misinformation” is a large umbrella term and that poll respondents may have cited things like rumours and claims about candidates while filling out the Leger survey.
“I think it could be sort of a catch-all,” he said. “Canadians tend to not like negative campaigns and negative campaign ads, for example, and so sometimes I wonder … does that get lumped into sort of that misinformation as well?”
The poll also suggests that just under two-thirds of Canadians (65 per cent) trust that the election results were accurate.
Thirty-six per cent said they trust the results “a great deal,” while 29 per cent said they trust them “a lot.”
However, 16 per cent said they trust the results only “a little” and 13 per cent said they don’t trust them “at all.”
People in Quebec were most likely to trust the results, at 77 per cent, compared to 70 per cent in B.C., 62 per cent in Ontario and 53 per cent in Alberta.
More people aged 55 and older said they had trust in the results, at 72 per cent, compared to 61 per cent of people aged 18 to 34 and 59 per cent of those aged 35 to 54.
Liberals were the most likely to trust the results, at 96 per cent, compared to 74 per cent of NDP voters and only 44 per cent of Conservatives.
Enns said the results point to an unfortunate but “very real” deterioration in people’s faith in institutions.
“There’s a party break in the trust where the Conservative supporters are less trusting, unfortunately,” he said, adding that mistrust could be due to people hearing about interference or being exposed to conspiracy theories.
Enns said Leger did not ask Canadians about misinformation or trust in results after the 2021 election.
The Elections Canada website says that about half (52 per cent) of people who responded to a National Electors Study thought the spread of false information online was a problem during the 2021 election — 50 per cent said the same thing about the 2019 election.
The study found that a quarter of respondents thought foreign countries or groups trying to interfere with the election or the political opinions of Canadians had been a problem in the 2021 election, compared with 31 per cent in 2019.
Elections Canada says close to one in 10 respondents thought false information had a major impact on the outcome of the 2021 election, and 20 per cent thought it had a moderate impact. Eighteen per cent of respondents said it had only a minor impact on the outcome, while only two per cent said it had no impact. The agency says those results were similar to those obtained after the 2019 election.
Elections Canada says four per cent thought that problems of foreign interference had a major impact on the outcome of the 2021 election, nine per cent thought it had a moderate impact, 10 per cent thought it had a minor impact and one per cent said it had no impact.
The polling industry’s professional body, the Canadian Research Insights Council, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population.
— With files from Jim Bronskill