1) Election takeaways: Trump’s decisive victory in a deeply divided nation

Courtesy Barrie360.com and The Associated Press

By Steve Peoples And Bill Barrow, November 6, 2024

 Donald Trump scored a decisive victory in a deeply divided nation. And in so doing, the Republican president-elect exposed a fundamental weakness within the Democratic base and beat back concerns about his moral failings, becoming the first U.S. president with a felony conviction.

Trump won over frustrated voters with bold promises that his fiery brand of America-first economic populism and conservative culture would make their lives better. He will be tested immediately, however, and there are reasons to believe his plans for mass deportations and huge tariffs may hurt the very people who enabled his victory.

Still, he is set to enter the White House on Jan. 20, 2025, from an undisputed position of strength. With votes still being counted, he could become the first Republican in two decades to win the popular vote.

The results left Democrats facing an urgent and immediate reckoning, with no obvious leader to unite the anti-Trump coalition and no clear plan to rebuild as an emboldened Trump prepares to re-take Washington.

Here are some key takeaways:

With modest shifts, Trump undermines the Democrats’ coalition

Black voters — men and women — have been the bedrock of the Democratic Party, and in recent years, Latinos and young voters have joined them.

All three groups still preferred Democrat Kamala Harris. But preliminary data from AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide, suggested that Trump made significant gains.

Voters under age 30 represent a fraction of the total electorate, but about half of them supported Harris. That’s compared to the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020. Slightly more than 4 in 10 young voters went for Trump, up from about one-third in 2020.

At the same time, Black and Latino voters appeared slightly less likely to support Harris than they were to back Biden four years ago, according to AP VoteCast.

About 8 in 10 Black voters backed Harris, down from the roughly 9 in 10 who backed Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was down slightly from the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020. Trump’s support among those groups appeared to rise slightly compared to 2020. Collectively, those small gains yielded an outsize outcome.

Trump focus on immigration, economy and culture worked

For all of the showmanship, profanity and name-calling, Trump ultimately won over voters with grand promises to improve the economy, block the flow of immigrants on the Southern border and his siren call to “make America great again.”

He also appealed to religious voters in both parties by seizing on the Democrats’ support for the transgender community.

Overall, about half of Trump voters said inflation was the biggest issue factoring into their election decisions. About as many said that of the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, according to AP VoteCast.

He papered over the fact that the economy by many conventional metrics is robust — inflation is largely in check and wages are up — while border crossings have dropped dramatically. He talked right past the facts and through relentless repetition convinced voters.

He also sold them on the promise of the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history, although he has not explained how such an operation would work. And he is threatening to impose massive tariffs on key products from China and other American adversaries, which economists warn could dramatically boost prices for average Americans.

Ultimately, Trump’s victory may have had as much to do with the fundamental challenges Harris faced all along. Facing deep voter frustration over the direction of the country — with Biden’s approval rating dismal — she never did distance herself from her party’s sitting president. Though Trump has now been the central figure in American politics for nine years, he convinced voters he represented change.

Trump will take charge of a nation with deep fissures

Trump is poised to inherit a nation with deepening political and cultural fissures and a worried electorate.

When asked what most influenced their vote, about half of voters cited the future of democracy. That was higher than the share who answered the same way about inflation, immigration or abortion policy. And it crosses over the two major parties: About two-thirds of Harris voters and about a third of Trump voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor in their votes.

That’s not surprising given the realities of the Trump era and the rhetoric of the campaign.

Trump refused to acknowledge his 2020 defeat and watched his supporters ransack the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, as Congress convened to certify Democrat Joe Biden’s victory. Trump even mused two days before Election Day that he “shouldn’t have left” the White House after repeatedly promising retribution to his political enemies.

Harris, by the end of the campaign, joined other critics — including Trump’s former White House chief of staff — in describing the former president and now president-elect as a “fascist.” Trump, meanwhile, labeled Harris a “fascist” and a “communist.”

Trump’s criminal baggage not an issue for many voters

Incomplete returns show that Donald Trump’s criminal convictions, additional pending indictments and any concerns over his most incendiary rhetoric simply were not a sufficient concern to keep tens of millions of Americans from voting for him.

According to AP VoteCast, slightly more than half of voters said Harris has the moral character to be president, compared to about 4 in 10 who said that about Trump. It’s quite possible, as Trump has said many times on the campaign trail, that his legal peril actually helped him.

As it stands, Trump may never actually face sentencing in a New York business fraud case in which he was convicted of 34 felonies. For now, his sentencing is scheduled for later this month.

He’s already had one federal indictment in Florida dismissed, sparing him from a trial on whether he flouted U.S. law on protecting national security secrets. And he’s made clear he would use his power as president to spike the federal case against him for his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. That would leave a Georgia racketeering case pending against Trump and others accused of trying to subvert the 2020 election result.

‘Bro’ politics beats out abortion concerns

It was the first presidential election after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and ended a woman’s national right to terminate a pregnancy. It was also the first time that a Republican presidential candidate overly courted males with a hypermasculine approach.

But the “gender gap” that resulted was not enough to sink Trump.

About half of women backed Harris, while about half of men went for Trump, according to AP VoteCast. That appears largely consistent with the shares for Biden and Trump in 2020.

Democrats face leadership crisis with urgent need to regroup

Just a few months ago, Harris generated incredible excitement across the party. She raised more than a billion dollars seemingly overnight. She dominated her debate with Trump. She filled arenas. And just days ago drew a massive crowd to the Ellipse and National Mall.

But in the end, it wasn’t enough.

Meanwhile, Republicans have claimed control of the Senate, ousting veteran Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and putting several other Democratic incumbents on the edge of defeat. The results will give Trump a significant advantage in pushing his agenda through Congress. Their only hope is to win a House majority built mostly through key suburban districts in California and New York, but that was far from certain early Wednesday.

And either way, the results shrink Democrats’ geographic footprint and, with Brown’s loss, diminish the kind of working class voice that can counter Trump’s appeal.

Trump already succeeded in painting Democrats as out-of-touch culturally with middle America. Now Democrats are left to wonder how to reconnect with parts of the country and slices of the electorate that rejected them.

2) Donald Trump wins US presidency, GOP reclaims Senate majority

Courtesy: Barrie360.com and The Associated Press

By Canadian Press, November 6, 2024

Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States on Wednesday, an extraordinary comeback for a former president who refused to accept defeat four years ago, sparked a violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, was convicted of felony charges and survived two assassination attempts.

With a win in Wisconsin, Trump cleared the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidency.

The victory validates his bare-knuckle approach to politics. He attacked his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, in deeply personal – often misogynistic and racist – terms as he pushed an apocalyptic picture of a country overrun by violent migrants. The coarse rhetoric, paired with an image of hypermasculinity, resonated with angry voters – particularly men – in a deeply polarized nation.

As president, he’s vowed to pursue an agenda centred on dramatically reshaping the federal government and pursuing retribution against his perceived enemies. Speaking to his supporters Wednesday morning, Trump claimed he had won “an unprecedented and powerful mandate.”

The results cap a historically tumultuous and competitive election season that included two assassination attempts targeting Trump and a shift to a new Democratic nominee just a month before the party’s convention. Trump will inherit a range of challenges when he assumes office on Jan. 20, including heightened political polarization and global crises testing America’s influence abroad.

His win against Harris, the first woman of colour to lead a major party ticket, marks the second time he has defeated a female rival in a general election. Harris, the current vice president, rose to the top of the ticket after President Joe Biden exited the race amid alarm about his advanced age. Despite an initial surge of energy around her campaign, she struggled during a compressed timeline to convince disillusioned voters that she represented a break from an unpopular administration.

Trump is the first former president to return to power since Grover Cleveland regained the White House in the 1892 election. He is the first person convicted of a felony to be elected president and, at 78, is the oldest person elected to the office. His vice president, 40-year-old Ohio Sen. JD Vance, will become the highest-ranking member of the millennial generation in the U.S. government.

There will be far fewer checks on Trump when he returns to the White House. He has plans to swiftly enact a sweeping agenda that would transform nearly every aspect of American government. His GOP critics in Congress have largely been defeated or retired. Federal courts are now filled with judges he appointed. The U.S. Supreme Court, which includes three Trump-appointed justices, issued a ruling earlier this year affording presidents broad immunity from prosecution.

Trump’s language and behaviour during the campaign sparked growing warnings from Democrats and some Republicans about shocks to democracy that his return to power would bring. He repeatedly praised strongman leaders, warned that he would deploy the military to target political opponents he labelled the “enemy from within,” threatened to take action against news organizations for unfavourable coverage and suggested suspending the Constitution.

Some who served in his first White House, including Vice President Mike Pence and John Kelly, Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, either declined to endorse him or issued dire public warnings about his return to the presidency.

While Harris focused much of her initial message around themes of joy, Trump channelled a powerful sense of anger and resentment among voters.

He seized on frustrations over high prices and fears about crime and migrants who illegally entered the country on Biden’s watch. He also highlighted wars in the Middle East and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to cast Democrats as presiding over – and encouraging – a world in chaos.

It was a formula Trump perfected in 2016, when he cast himself as the only person who could fix the country’s problems, often borrowing language from dictators.

“In 2016, I declared I am your voice. Today I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution,” he said in March 2023.

This campaign often veered into the absurd, with Trump amplifying bizarre and disproven rumours that migrants were stealing and eating pet cats and dogs in an Ohio town. At one point, he kicked off a rally with a detailed story about the legendary golfer Arnold Palmer in which he praised his genitalia.

But perhaps the defining moment came in July when a gunman opened fire at a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. A bullet grazed Trump’s ear and killed one of his supporters. His face streaked with blood, Trump stood and raised his fist in the air, shouting “Fight! Fight! Fight!” Weeks later, a second assassination attempt was thwarted after a Secret Service agent spotted the barrel of a gun poking through the greenery while Trump was playing golf.

Trump’s return to the White House seemed unlikely when he left Washington in early 2021 as a diminished figure whose lies about his defeat sparked a violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. He was so isolated at the time that few outside of his family bothered to attend the send-off he organized for himself at Andrews Air Force Base, complete with a 21-gun salute.

Democrats who controlled the U.S. House quickly impeached him for his role in the insurrection, making him the only president to be impeached twice. He was acquitted by the U.S. Senate, where many Republicans argued that he no longer posed a threat because he had left office.

However, from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, Trump – aided by some elected Republicans – worked to maintain his political relevance. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the California Republican who at the time led his party in the U.S. House, visited Trump soon after he left office, essentially validating his continued role in the party.

As the 2022 midterm election approached, Trump used the power of his endorsement to assert himself as the unquestioned leader of the party. His preferred candidates almost always won their primaries, but some went on to defeat in elections that Republicans viewed as within their grasp. Those disappointing results were driven in part by a backlash to the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that revoked a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion, a decision that was aided by Trump-appointed justices. The midterm election prompted questions within the GOP about whether Trump should remain the party’s leader.

But if Trump’s future was in doubt, that changed in 2023 when he faced a wave of state and federal indictments for his role in the insurrection, his handling of classified information and election interference. He used the charges to portray himself as the victim of an overreaching government, an argument that resonated with a GOP base that was increasingly skeptical – if not outright hostile – to institutions and established power structures.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who challenged Trump for the Republican nomination, lamented that the indictments “sucked out all the oxygen” from this year’s GOP primary. Trump easily captured his party’s nomination without ever participating in a debate against DeSantis or other GOP candidates.

With Trump dominating the Republican contest, a New York jury found him guilty in May of 34 felony charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to a porn actor who said the two had sex. He faces sentencing later this month, though his victory poses serious questions about whether he will ever face punishment.

He has also been found liable in two other New York civil cases: one for inflating his assets and another for sexually abusing advice columnist E. Jean Carroll in 1996.

Trump is subject to additional criminal charges in an election-interference case in Georgia that has become bogged down. On the federal level, he’s been indicted for his role in trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election and improperly handling classified material. When he becomes president on Jan. 20, Trump could appoint an attorney general who would erase the federal charges.

As he prepares to return to the White House, Trump has vowed to swiftly enact a radical agenda that would transform nearly every aspect of American government. That includes plans to launch the largest deportation effort in the nation’s history, to use the Justice Department to punish his enemies, to dramatically expand the use of tariffs and to again pursue a zero-sum approach to foreign policy that threatens to upend longstanding foreign alliances, including the NATO pact.

When he arrived in Washington 2017, Trump knew little about the levers of federal power. His agenda was stymied by Congress and the courts, as well as senior staff members who took it upon themselves to serve as guardrails.

This time, Trump has said he would surround himself with loyalists who will enact his agenda, no questions asked, and who will arrive with hundreds of draft executive orders, legislative proposals and in-depth policy papers in hand.

3) ‘Be ready for both’: Canadians prepare for any outcome as Americans head to the polls

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Kelly Geraldine Malone, Nov 5, 2024

Millions of Americans are heading to the polls Tuesday as a chaotic presidential campaign reaches its peak in a deeply divided United States where only a handful of battleground states will choose the country’s path forward. (AP Photo)

Millions of Americans are heading to the polls Tuesday as a chaotic presidential campaign reaches its peak in a deeply divided United States, where voters in only a handful of battleground states will choose the country’s path forward.

Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump have presented starkly different visions for America’s future, but polling shows the two remain in a dead heat. 

“Any election in the U.S. is important and impactful for us,” said Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the United States. “They are central to our economic prosperity. They are a vital security partner.”

Hillman has been travelling across America meeting with key members of the Republican and Democrat teams to prepare for any outcome. On election night, after her embassy duties are finished, she’ll be watching the results with her husband and friends — and said she’s leaning toward ordering pizza.

While the gathering with loved ones may bring solace amid the anxious anticipation, Hillman knows more than anyone the immense stakes at play for Canada.

“Whoever is sitting in the Oval Office and populating Congress is making decisions that may affect Canada, either decisions that provide us with opportunities or decisions that pose challenges for us,” Hillman said. “The job is to be ready for both.”

A shared history and 8,891-kilometre border will not shield Canada from the election’s outcome. Both candidates have proposed protectionist policies, but experts warn if the Republican leader prevails the relationship between the neighbours could be much more difficult.

“Trump and some of the key people around him, including (former trade representative) Robert Lighthizer, really want to stick it to Canada,” said Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa.

Trump’s first administration demonstrated how vulnerable Canada is to America’s whims when the former president scrapped the North American Free Trade Agreement. 

Negotiating its successor, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, was a key test for Ottawa after Trump’s victory. Whoever takes over the White House this time will be in charge during the agreement’s review in 2026. 

A cause for concern in Canada and around the world is Trump’s proposed 10 per cent across-the-board tariff. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report suggests those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs. 

American economists warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation, and possibly a recession, which would almost certainly have ripple effects in Canada. More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S and trade comprises 60 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product.

“When the American economy is growing, it’s generally good for us,” Hampson said. “If they take a deep dive under Trump … that will have a knock-on effect on us, on top of tariffs.”

The election outcome could also redefine America’s role in the world. Trump is critical of giving aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia, has attacked the United Nations and repeatedly claimed he would not defend NATO members that don’t meet defence spending targets — something Canada is not doing, and won’t for years.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised to meet the target of spending the equivalent of two per cent of GDP on defence by 2032.

Trump’s first tenure also saw the Republican leader withdraw from the Paris Agreement, an international treaty to cut greenhouse gases.

Hampson said the Republicans’ push against international institutions and treaties will have “a profound impact” on Canada, but also key allies and the world order itself.

If Harris wins, it’s widely expected that there will be more normal relations based on established patterns and rules, but it does not necessarily mean smooth sailing for Canada.

It’s expected the vice-president would follow the path laid by President Joe Biden on foreign policy and trade with Canada. 

Biden signed an executive order to revoke the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have transferred oil from Alberta to Nebraska. The administration’s Buy America procurement rules also caused concern in Canada.

Laura Dawson, an expert on Canada-U.S. relations and the executive director of the Future Borders Coalition, said she expects a Harris administration would continue nationalist and protectionist policies.

Harris has spoken on the campaign trail about the fact that she voted against the trilateral trade agreement and said she will return manufacturing jobs to the U.S. 

It’s a great slogan and bumper sticker, Dawson said, “but it’s terrible if you are Canada.”

Dawson warned Trudeau’s team during a cabinet retreat in August that no matter who is the next president, Canada will have to work harder to maintain existing benefits of integrated trade and travel.

Meanwhile, many Americans are caught between anxiety and excitement. Sixteen-year-old Gavin Kupcho attended his first Trump rally in Wisconsin last week.

“I’ve never felt more enthused in my life,” he said. “I need lower gas prices since I just got my licence.”

The situation feels more dire for Antonio White, who travelled from Miami to Milwaukee to knock on doors for Harris in the crucial battleground state. The 63-year-old said America is at a critical point “where people are no longer recognizing fascism when they see it.”

“This is an election we must win for the sanctity of everybody, for the country itself,” he said.

“Democracy is on the ballot this time.”

4) Harris and Trump will both make a furious last-day push before Election Day

Courtesy Barrie360.com and The Associated Press

By Bill Barrow, November 4, 2024

A presidential campaign that has careened through a felony trial, an incumbent president being pushed off the ticket and multiple assassination attempts comes down to a final push across a handful of states on the eve of Election Day.

Kamala Harris will spend all of Monday in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes offer the largest prize among the states expected to determine the Electoral College outcome. The vice president and Democratic nominee will visit working-class areas including Allentown and end with a late-night Philadelphia rally that includes Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey.

Donald Trump plans four rallies in three states, beginning in Raleigh, North Carolina and stopping twice in Pennsylvania with events in Reading and Pittsburgh. The Republican nominee and former president ends his campaign the way he ended the first two, with a late Monday night event in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

About 77 million Americans already have voted early, but Harris and Trump are pushing to turn out many millions more supporters on Tuesday. Either result on Election Day will yield a historic outcome.

A Trump victory would make him the first incoming president to have been indicted and convicted of a felony, after his hush-money trial in New York. He will gain the power to end other federal investigations pending against him. Trump would also become the second president in history to win non-consecutive White House terms, after Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century.

Harris is vying to become the first woman, first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to reach the Oval Office, four years after she broke the same barriers in national office by becoming President Joe Biden’s second in command.

The vice president ascended to the top of the Democratic ticket after Biden’s disastrous performance in a June debate set into motion his withdrawing from the race. That was just one of a series of convulsions that have hit this year’s campaign.

Trump survived by millimeters a would-be assassin’s bullet at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. His Secret Service detail foiled a second attempt in September when a gunman had set up a rifle as Trump golfed at one of his courses in Florida.

Harris, 60, has played down the historic nature of her candidacy, which materialized only after the 81-year-old president ended his reelection bid after his June debate against the 78-year-old Trump accentuated questions about Biden’s age.

Instead, Harris has pitched herself as a generational change, emphasized her support for abortion rights after the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision ending the constitutional right to abortion services, and regularly noted the former president’s role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Assembling a coalition ranging from progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York to Republican former Vice President Dick Cheney, Harris has called Trump a threat to democracy and late in the campaign even embraced the critique that Trump is accurately described as a “fascist.”

Heading into Monday, Harris has mostly stopped mentioning Trump. She is promising to solve problems and seek consensus, while sounding an almost exclusively optimistic tone reminiscent of her campaign’s opening days when she embraced “the politics of joy” and the campaign theme “Freedom.”

“From the very start, our campaign has not been about being against something, it is about being for something,” Harris said Sunday evening at Michigan State University.

Trump, renewing his “Make America Great Again” and “America First” slogans, has made his hard-line approach to immigration and withering criticisms of Harris and Biden the anchors of his argument for a second administration. He’s hammered Democrats for an inflationary economy, and he’s pledged to lead an economic “golden age,” end international conflicts and seal the U.S. southern border.

But Trump also has veered often into grievances over being prosecuted after trying to overturn Biden’s victory and repeatedly denigrated the country he wants to lead again as a “failed nation.” As recently as Sunday, he renewed his false claims that U.S. elections are rigged against him, mused about violence against journalists and said he “shouldn’t have left” the White House in 2021 — dark turns that have overshadowed another anchor of his closing argument: “Kamala broke it. I will fix it.”

The election is likely to be decided across seven states. Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 only to see them flip to Biden in 2020. North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada add the Sun Belt swath of the presidential battleground map.

Trump won North Carolina twice and lost Nevada twice. He won Arizona and Georgia in 2016 but saw them slip to Democrats in 2020.

Harris’ team has projected confidence in recent days, pointing to a large gender gap in early voting data and research showing late-deciding voters have broken her way. They also believe in the strength of their campaign infrastructure. This weekend, the Harris campaign had more than 90,000 volunteers helping turn out voters — and knocked on more than 3 million doors across the battleground states. Still, Harris aides have insisted she remains the underdog.

Trump’s team has projected confidence, as well, arguing that the former president’s populist appeal will attract younger and working-class voters across racial and ethnic lines. The idea is that Trump can amass an atypical Republican coalition, even as other traditional GOP blocks — notably college-educated voters — become more Democratic.