Trade and Exports – canada: 1) Canada posted $583M merchandise trade deficit for October: StatCan; 2)Trade Surplus With the U.S. Narrows Significantly in October

1) Canada posted $583M merchandise trade deficit for October: StatCan

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Canadian Press Staff, January 8, 2026

Canada’s imports outpaced the growth of exports in October as the country posted a merchandise trade deficit of $583 million for the month.

Statistics Canada said in a report Thursday the result compared with a surplus of $243 million in September.

Imports for October rose 3.4 per cent to $66.2 billion as imports of electronic and electrical equipment and parts gained 10.2 per cent.

Imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products were up 9.5 per cent, while industrial machinery, equipment and parts climbed 5.7 per cent.

Total exports increased 2.1 per cent in October to $65.6 billion as exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products increased 27.3 per cent to a record high. Exports of motor vehicles and parts rose 4.1 per cent.

In volume terms, total imports rose 2.6 per cent, while total exports fell 0.4 per cent.

TD Bank economist Marc Ercolao said the bank continues to believe that the peak negative impacts from tariffs are in the rear-view mirror especially as consumers and businesses adapt to the new normal.

“The path forward is still subject to significant risk, notably the upcoming and complex review of the USMCA agreement,” Ercolao wrote in a report.

“The U.S. Supreme Court is also set to rule, possibly as early as tomorrow, on whether the U.S. administration’s use of IEEPA tariffs is lawful. The jury is out on what the decision will be, but it may have implications for upcoming negotiations.”

Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. was $4.8 billion in October compared with $8.4 billion in September as imports from the U.S. rose 5.3 per cent. Canadian exports to the U.S. fell 3.4 per cent.

Meanwhile, Canada’s trade deficit with countries other than the U.S. narrowed to $5.4 billion in October compared with $8.1 billion in September.

Exports to countries other than the U.S. rose 15.6 per cent to reach a record high in October, while imports from countries other than the U.S. edged up 0.6 per cent.

In a separate report, Statistics Canada said the country’s international trade in services surplus increased to $500 million in October compared with $400 million in September as imports of services fell 1.2 per cent to $19.6 billion and exports of services edged down 0.4 per cent to $20.1 billion.

When international trade in goods and services are combined, the agency said Canada’s total trade balance with the world was a deficit of $59 million in October compared with a surplus of $607 million in September.

2)Trade Surplus With the U.S. Narrows Significantly in October

Conference Board Of Canada

Canada’s merchandise exports increased 2.1 per cent (month-over-month) in October 2025. Meanwhile, imports were up 3.4 per cent. As a result, Canada’s merchandise trade balance moved from a slight surplus of $243 million in September to a deficit of $583 million in October.

• Exports rose to $65.6 billion in October. Gains were recorded in 6 of 11 product categories. Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products (+22.7 per cent) posted the largest increase again, followed by exports of motor vehicles and parts (+4.1 per cent). On the other hand, lower exports of energy products (-8.4 per cent) offset some of the monthly gains. In volume terms, total exports were down 0.4 per cent.

• Imports climbed to $66.2 billion in October, partially rebounding from September’s 4.3 per cent decline. Overall, increases were recorded in 8 of 11 product categories. The main contributors to the monthly increase were imports of electronic and electrical equipment and parts (+10.2 per cent), as well as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products (+9.5 per cent). Partially offsetting the monthly gains was the 7.5 per cent decline in imports of basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products. In volume terms, total imports increased 2.6 per cent.

• Canadian exports to the U.S. fell 3.4 per cent in October. Meanwhile, imports from the United States rose by 5.3 per cent. As a result, the merchandise trade surplus with the United States narrowed significantly from $8.4 billion in September to $4.8 billion in October.

Key insights

Gold and other precious metals remained a key driver of trade activity. Exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals climbed 27.3 per cent in October, reaching a record high, led by a 47.4 per cent increase in unwrought gold and related alloys. Excluding unwrought gold, total exports fell 2.5 per cent. While weaker gold shipments weighed on exports to the U.S., they supported a 15.6 per cent increase in exports to other countries. Higher prices were a contributor to the overall monthly export gains. On the import side, unwrought platinum and silver bullion from the United States were behind the growth in October.

Near term trade pressures have not yet fully abated. Nominal exports rebounded modestly by 2.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, following a sharp 12.7 per cent contraction in the second quarter. While recent monthly gains suggest some resilience in the face of U.S. tariff pressures, export volumes declined this month. Moreover, recent strength has been largely driven by shipments of unwrought gold, masking underlying weakness in core trade activity.

Excluding price effects and gold exports, the trade picture appears gloomy. Risks remain elevated amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and softening U.S. economic activity. President Trump has continued to signal potential tariff actions, several of which have not materialized, reinforcing policy unpredictability. Any prolongation or escalation of U.S. trade measures represents a key downside risk to our medium term economic outlook.