1) Tariffs, economic uncertainty chilling cottage housing market, report says

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Sammy Hudes, May 19, 2025

The May long weekend marks the unofficial start of cottage season for many Canadians, but a new report says some looking to buy a vacation home of their own are holding back until economic tensions settle.

The report by Re/Max Canada, which is based on a Leger survey it commissioned in March, said lower borrowing costs and improved affordability in the recreational market last year had prompted renewed interest among potential buyers.

However, that’s now being overshadowed by economic uncertainty that has chilled the national housing market in recent months in response to the ongoing U.S.-Canada trade war.

According to the survey, 59 per cent of people whose housing options have been influenced by recent tariffs indicate they are less confident in the recreational market than they were in 2024.

“Market conditions really took a hit when they started having these trade discussions,” said Re/Max Canada president Don Kottick in an interview.

But he didn’t rule out a quick turnaround, saying the market could open up rapidly if Canada reaches a new trade deal with its southern neighbour.

“I think the underlying desire is there. The general consensus is that desire is not going to go away,” he said of interest in the secondary home market.

“Recreational buyers are temporarily on the sidelines as they await for further clarity or signs of economic stability.”

While unit sales aren’t expected to decline year-over-year in the majority of Canada’s recreational markets, activity is forecast to range from flat to a 10 per cent increase.

Re/Max brokers and agents anticipate a national average price increase of about 1.8 per cent across the Canadian recreational market in 2025, according to the report.

Among Canadians less confident in the housing market than they were in 2024, 19 per cent said due to the tariff threats, they are holding off on buying or selling until there is further clarity.

In Ontario, the market is “more or less paused,” said the report, as both buyers and sellers keep an eye on employment and other economic indicators.

Year-over-year prices in the Ontario cottage market have declined across half of all regions analyzed, with declines ranging from about one to 20 per cent, including Niagara-on-the-Lake, Peterborough County, Northwestern Ontario, Orillia, and Grand Bend, largely due to increases in inventory.

The remaining 50 per cent of Ontario cottage markets have seen prices increase, reflective of tight inventory levels in Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes, Greater Sudbury, and Prince Edward County.

The average price in B.C.’s recreational market is expected to rise 1.1 per cent in 2025, according to the report, thanks to balanced market conditions.According to the survey, 59 per cent of people whose housing options have been influenced by recent tariffs indicate they are less confident in the recreational market than they were in 2024.

“Market conditions really took a hit when they started having these trade discussions,” said Re/Max Canada president Don Kottick in an interview.

But he didn’t rule out a quick turnaround, saying the market could open up rapidly if Canada reaches a new trade deal with its southern neighbour.

“I think the underlying desire is there. The general consensus is that desire is not going to go away,” he said of interest in the secondary home market.

“Recreational buyers are temporarily on the sidelines as they await for further clarity or signs of economic stability.”

While unit sales aren’t expected to decline year-over-year in the majority of Canada’s recreational markets, activity is forecast to range from flat to a 10 per cent increase.

Re/Max brokers and agents anticipate a national average price increase of about 1.8 per cent across the Canadian recreational market in 2025, according to the report.

Among Canadians less confident in the housing market than they were in 2024, 19 per cent said due to the tariff threats, they are holding off on buying or selling until there is further clarity.

In Ontario, the market is “more or less paused,” said the report, as both buyers and sellers keep an eye on employment and other economic indicators.

Year-over-year prices in the Ontario cottage market have declined across half of all regions analyzed, with declines ranging from about one to 20 per cent, including Niagara-on-the-Lake, Peterborough County, Northwestern Ontario, Orillia, and Grand Bend, largely due to increases in inventory.

The remaining 50 per cent of Ontario cottage markets have seen prices increase, reflective of tight inventory levels in Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes, Greater Sudbury, and Prince Edward County.

The average price in B.C.’s recreational market is expected to rise 1.1 per cent in 2025, according to the report, thanks to balanced market conditions.

“I think we can assume that Canadians are being a little bit more cautious,” said Carrie Lysenko, CEO of online real estate brokerage Zoocasa.

“We are seeing a lot of fluctuations.”

But Lysenko said some popular cottage destinations, such as Ontario’s Muskoka region, are more “immune” to fluctuations in overall economic and real estate trends because they benefit from a “different profile of buyer.”

“Muskoka is known as the Hamptons of the north. Desirability is so high to have properties in those areas,” she said.

“These are not first-time home buyers. These are higher net-worth individuals that are looking for secondary or tertiary properties, investment properties that they potentially are going to either enjoy for themselves or rent out.”

She said there could be reason for optimism that other secondary markets in Canada will pick up too. 

An analysis earlier this month by Zoocasa said tariffs are prompting Canadians to pull back from U.S. real estate, including secondary homes in warm resort and vacation markets.

It said Canadians made up the largest share of foreign buyers in the U.S. last year with an average purchase price of roughly US$834,000, and that domestic purchases could increase as interest down south wanes.

“When we think about how far can your dollar go in the U.S. versus buying a secondary and vacation property in Canada, that might be more affordable and more attractive,” said Lysenko.

“It would likely put more pressure on some of these vacation destinations, like Muskoka, like Whistler, maybe parts of Vancouver Island.”

The Re/Max report also said there could be hope for a rebound in Canada’s cottage country as Canadians divert U.S. travel plans, comparing the situation to the increased local tourism seen during the pandemic.

But it said affordability will remain a key factor for potential buyers, with 57 per cent of survey respondents identifying it as a must-have.

“It really is largely based on disposable income,” said Kottick.

2) ‘Trump factor’ could cause gas price volatility this summer, analyst says

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Lauren Krugel, May 17, 2025

The May long weekend is when gasoline prices tend to start levelling off ahead of the high-demand summer driving season. 

But one thing may throw a wrench in long-held expectations about gas price behaviour this year, said Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst with En-Pro International. 

“We have another factor in the equation that’s called the Trump factor, which has thrown any logical mathematical explanation completely out the window because it really depends on what he says, what we think he’s going to say or what he may never say,” he said. 

In January and February, refineries go down for maintenance to switch over to producing summer fuels, usually raising prices until they peak around mid-April, McKnight said. 

What prices consumers see at the pump now might be what they get for the warmer months, but the utterings of U.S. President Donald Trump on tariffs and geopolitical issues may jolt the market in either direction, he said. 

The effects of the federal consumer carbon levy’s demise seem to be holding after Prime Minister Mark Carney did away with the charge on April 1.

The levy equated to 17.6 cents per litre of gasoline, and McKnight said pump prices remain about 15 cents per litre lower than before the change took effect. 

He added that refineries are running at about 90 per cent capacity, which is low for this time of year. 

“The driving season is right around the corner, but the refining margins are so, so poor that the refiner is saying, ‘Heck, we’re just going to hold back … if we are not making good money on the stuff we’re making,'” he said.

“That may support higher prices throughout the summer, but I can’t see anything drastic happening unless there is a geopolitical mess that we can never get out of.”

The price of crude oil, the raw product used to make gasoline and diesel, has been weak lately.

West Texas Intermediate, a U.S. benchmark for light oil, has been hovering around the US$60-per-barrel mark in recent weeks, about US$10 lower than it was just six months ago. 

The Canadian Fuels Association, citing 2023 data from Kalibrate Canada Inc., said crude oil represents about 42 per cent of the pump price, with taxes, refining, distribution and marketing making up the rest.

Price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com pegged the national average for a litre of unleaded gasoline at 139.9 cents on Friday afternoon, up 8.6 cents from a week ago, but down 24 cents from the same day last year.

3)Trump says Canada has asked to join his Golden Dome missile defence program

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Kelly Geraldine Malone, May 20, 2025. 

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Tuesday aspects of his plan for a “Golden Dome” missile defence shield and said “it automatically makes sense” for Canada to be involved.

“Canada has called us and they want to be a part of it,” Trump said. “So we’ll be talking to them. They want to have protection also, so as usual we help Canada.”

The president claims the complex multilayered system will cost $175 billion and that it will be completed within his term, which ends in 2029. He said it will “deploy next generation technologies across the land, sea and space, including space-based sensors and interceptors.”

Trump said the system will be able to intercept missiles launched from the other side of the world, or from space.

Trump campaigned on a plan to create a “Golden Dome,” based on Israel’s “Iron Dome” defence network — but some critics have said it would be too costly and too difficult to deploy over such a large land mass.

Despite Trump’s cost claims, the Congressional Budget Office estimated earlier this month that the space-based components of the program could alone cost as much as $542 billion over the next 20 years.

Canada has been criticized by multiple U.S. administrations for not meeting the NATO membership defence spending target. Trump has repeatedly claimed the U.S. protects Canada.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged to hit that NATO target — the equivalent of two per cent of gross domestic product — by 2030. During a meeting with Carney at the White House earlier this month, Trump said “Canada is stepping up the military participation.”

Trump said Tuesday his administration will work with Canada on “pricing” and “they’ll pay their fair share.”

“We are dealing with them on pricing. They know about it very much,” he said.

Canada and the United States already work together through the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or Norad. — With files from The Associated Press