1) Carney to meet Zelenskyy in Rome and attend Pope’s inaugural mass Sunday

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Nick Murray, May 17, 2025

Prime Minister Mark Carney landed in Rome Saturday, where he is meeting with other world leaders and will attend the inaugural mass of Pope Leo XIV on Sunday. 

Carney, a devout Catholic, is making his first official visit to the Vatican. He did not attend the funeral of Pope Francis as it took place two days before the federal election last month.

Carney is scheduled to meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni Saturday after meeting with Italian President Sergio Mattarrella earlier in the day.

He’s also expected to sit down with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Sunday, part of a concerted effort to meet with other G7 leaders ahead of the global summit Canada is hosting in Kananaskis, Alta., next month.

The prime minister is also scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Saturday.

Zelenskyy – who is also in Rome to attend the papal inauguration – spoke with Carney by phone after the prime minister’s election win.

Carney, who was greeted on the tarmac by Canadian Ambassador to Italy Elissa Goldberg and Canada’s Ambassador to the Holy See Joyce Napier as well as other officials, will wrap his first day in Rome with a meeting with European Union President Ursula von der Leyen.

A delegation of 13 Liberal MPs, who are Catholic or represent ridings with a large Catholic base, is also travelling with Carney.

Former cabinet minister Jean-Yves Duclos, Nova Scotia MP Jaime Battiste and Ottawa MPs Mona Fortier and Marie-France Lalonde are among those on the trip.

Senators Toni Varone and Tony Loffreda are also part of the Canadian delegation, as are Assembly of First Nations National Chief Cindy Woodhouse Nepinak and Métis National Council President Victoria Pruden.

2)Economists expect end of consumer carbon price pulled down April inflation to 1.6%

Courtesy Barrie360.com

By Craig Lord, May 18, 2025

Canadian motorists were paying less at the pump in April after the Liberals nixed the consumer carbon price — a move economists expect will help keep inflation around the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target as tariff woes percolate.

Statistics Canada is set to release its consumer price index figures for April on Tuesday, roughly two weeks before the central bank’s next interest rate decision scheduled for June 4.

As of Friday afternoon, economists expected April inflation cooled to 1.6 per cent, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. 

The consumer carbon price amounted to around 18 cents per litre of gas when it was eliminated at the start of April, one of the first actions from Prime Minister Mark Carney after he took office.

The shock of removing the consumer carbon price is expected to drop headline inflation by 0.7 percentage points in April, according to calculations from the Bank of Canada’s latest monetary policy report.

The central bank expects the end of the carbon price will lower the overall inflation figures by roughly that amount each month for the coming year, after which the removal of the levy will fall out of the annual comparison.

RBC expects the annual inflation figure will drop to 1.6 per cent in April, down from 2.3 per cent in March.

RBC economists Nathan Janzen and Abbey Xu said in a note to clients Friday that Canadian inflation data continues to be “distorted” by tax changes, with the carbon price removal coming after the two-month federal tax break on a variety of goods ended in mid-February.

Tu Nguyen, economist with RSM Canada, said motorists were also benefitting from a drop in global oil prices in April.

“We’re expecting a slower economy in the world overall this year, and OPEC countries increased production, so that led to lower oil prices,” she said.

Nguyen expects April inflation to come in “fairly close” to the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target as slowdowns in shelter inflation tied to lower rents also take some steam out of the headline number.

But hopes that cheaper transportation costs would feed through supply chains might fall flat, she said, as April marked the first full month of Canada’s tariff dispute with the United States.

The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, with some carveouts for goods such as autos. Canada’s counter-tariffs targetting billions of dollars in goods from south of the border also have some exemptions.

Nguyen argued any relief businesses got from cheaper gas costs might end up “cancelled out” by trade uncertainty as companies reorient their supply chains to either steer away from the U.S. or absorb the hit from tariffs — in either case, pushing their costs higher.

She said the trade dispute will primarily show up in the prices Canadians pay for new vehicles or certain auto parts, but she doesn’t think those forces are enough to pump up the April inflation figure.

The U.S. consumer price index figures released last week showed little evidence that tariffs were pushing up prices south of the border, Nguyen added, so they’re unlikely to have a drastic effect in the Canadian data.

“Because retaliation is still quite limited right now, and we do have various pauses, trade talks seem to be happening, I don’t think … the headline number would be dramatically too different,” she said.

The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady in April following seven consecutive cuts.

Governor Tiff Macklem made clear then that the central bank opted for a rate hold as it awaited more data on how the trade dispute will impact the Canadian economy.

Nguyen said signs of weakness in the labour market — Canada’s unemployment rate ticked up to 6.9 per cent last month as trade-sensitive sectors such as manufacturing shed jobs — could be enough to push the Bank of Canada off the sidelines and toward additional cuts in June.

TD Bank economist Marc Ercolao said in a note to clients Friday that incoming data is “increasingly painting a picture of a slowing Canadian economy.”

“From our lens, the current situation gives the BoC room to deliver another quarter-point cut to the policy rate at the June announcement,” he said.

As of Friday afternoon, money markets placed odds over 64 per cent for a quarter-point cut from the Bank of Canada next month, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

Nguyen said she expects two additional quarter-point rate cuts this year, bringing the central bank’s policy rate down to 2.25 per cent.

She said she doesn’t think those cuts will be back-to-back, however, as the Bank of Canada sticks to its wait-and-see approach as the trade war plays out.

3)(Updated) Liberal government to table federal budget this fall, PM Carney says

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Nick Murray May 18, 2025

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Sunday the Liberal government will present a federal budget in the fall, allowing time for clarity on some key economic and fiscal issues to emerge.

Speaking to reporters Sunday in Rome, Carney defended his government’s decision not to deliver a budget this spring, saying there is little value in rushing the process. 

Carney noted a new session of Parliament begins with a throne speech on May 27, but the House of Commons is due to rise less than a month later. 

Opposition parties recently attacked Carney for being vague about his plans after his government said it would not table a budget before members of Parliament leave for the summer. 

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said instead of a spring budget, the government would put forward an economic statement — which is usually less comprehensive than a full budget — in the fall. 

Carney made it clear Sunday the document will be a full-fledged budget.

He said there will be more clarity in coming months on Canada’s defence spending plans, the overall economic outlook and how to make the federal government more efficient.

“We will have a much more comprehensive, effective, ambitious, prudent budget in the fall,” he said. 

“You do these things right, and that’s what we’re going to do.”

Carney said the annual NATO summit, to be held in late June in the Netherlands, will have “budgetary implications” for Canada.

In addition, he indicated a desire to have further discussions with the United States, which has hit Canada with a barrage of tariffs, to help bring “greater clarity” on the economic relationship between the two countries.

After taking questions from the media, Carney met with U.S. Vice-President JD Vance to discuss Canada-U.S. relations and Ukraine.

Political leaders from around the world were in Rome as Pope Leo XIV presided over his inaugural mass Sunday in St. Peter’s Square.

The prime minister was seated in the second row with his wife Diana for the mass, in a section among other world leaders and heads of state.

Carney, a devout Catholic, was one of the few world leaders to kneel during the blessing of the Eucharist, and he was twice spotted using his phone to take photos of the Pope to mark the occasion — before the mass started and after it had concluded. 

Following the mass, he, his wife and daughter Cleo briefly met the Pope inside St. Peter’s Basilica.

Carney had a bilateral meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz earlier Sunday before heading to the Vatican. He had similar meetings with leaders of Italy, Ukraine and the European Union on Saturday. 

Thirteen Canadian MPs also attended the mass, including Jaime Battiste, who was part of a reception with Canadian Catholic cardinals on Saturday in Rome along with the prime minister. 

The Nova Scotia MP had eagerly anticipated hearing how the Pope “sets the tone” for his leadership. 

“It’s kind of like our version of the speech from the throne as members of Parliament,” Battiste told reporters outside Canada’s official residence on Saturday. 

Pope Leo — the first American to hold the title — called for unity in his homily. 

“In this time, we still see too much discord, too many wars caused by hatred, violence, prejudice, the fear of difference, and an economy that exploits the Earth’s resources,” he said. 

Indigenous leaders have long called on the Vatican to repatriate thousands of Indigenous artifacts taken from communities in Canada. The late Pope Francis had expressed a willingness to return colonial-era artifacts in the Vatican Museum. 

Battiste said the return of the artifacts came up in his meeting with the cardinals, and their repatriation is an important step toward reconciliation. 

“I’ve always said that reconciliation is a journey, not a destination, and we all have steps to take on that journey,” Battiste said.  — With files from Jim Bronskill in Ottawa