Liberal Cabinet: 1) Possible scenarios that could play out in Ottawa as the Liberal government teeters ; 2) Former Liberal cabinet minister Marco Mendicino not running in next election; 3)’We need new leadership’: Atlantic Liberal caucus calls for Trudeau’s resignation

1) Possible scenarios that could play out in Ottawa as the Liberal government teeters

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By David Baxter, January 3, 2025

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is said to be reflecting on his future over the holidays after the resignation of his top cabinet minister, Chrystia Freeland, in mid-December. The bombshell move prompted a fresh wave of calls for Trudeau to step down as Liberal leader from inside and outside the caucus.

With MPs set to return to the House of Commons on Jan. 27, the Liberal grip on power appears tenuous. The NDP, which has been a steady ally of the minority government since the 2021 election, is no longer planning to support the Liberals.

Here is a look at some of the scenarios that could play out in coming weeks:

Prorogation

Regardless of whether Trudeau resigns as Liberal leader, the government could seek prorogation to end all House of Commons business.

If Gov. Gen. Mary Simon honours the prorogation request, all outstanding legislation effectively dies on the order paper. 

Once the House reconvenes, a new throne speech would set out the government’s fresh legislative agenda. In addition, legislation that was in progress before prorogation could potentially be revived.

In 2008, then-prime minister Stephen Harper notably prorogued Parliament shortly before a non-confidence vote that could have seen his minority Conservative government defeated and replaced by an NDP-Liberal coalition supported by the Bloc Québécois. 

Non-confidence vote

The Conservatives, Bloc Québécois and NDP all say they are ready to bring down the Liberal government through a non-confidence vote. 

Passage of a non-confidence motion in the House of Commons could trigger an immediate election campaign. 

An opportunity to defeat the government could come as soon as Jan. 30, prompted by New Brunswick Conservative MP John Williamson’s plan to advance a motion through the public accounts committee.

Williamson says he intends to introduce a non-confidence motion at the Conservative-chaired committee’s next meeting on Jan. 7. Williamson says he would continue scheduling meetings throughout January if Liberal committee members filibuster the motion. 

If the motion is successful, Williamson says, it would be forwarded to the House of Commons for further debate, and could be up for a vote as soon as Jan. 30. 

The Liberals have survived previous Conservative non-confidence motions with support from the NDP. It appears that will no longer be the case. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says his party will bring forward its own non-confidence motion at the earliest possible time, no matter who is Liberal leader. 

The Conservatives, NDP, and Bloc Québécois will all get opposition days before March 26, when they are allowed to introduce business like non-confidence motions. 

However, it’s up to the government House leader to schedule those days, so they may not take place before mid-to-late March. 

Liberal leadership

If Trudeau heeds the calls to resign as Liberal leader, it will trigger a contest to succeed him. 

According to the Liberal party constitution, the party executive has to call a meeting within 27 days of the leader’s resignation to establish rules and infrastructure for a leadership contest. 

A provision in the constitution says the Liberal caucus can be consulted on who becomes the interim leader. A Dec. 23 letter from the party’s Atlantic caucus urges Trudeau to step down and calls for caucus consultation in the event of a leadership race.

There is no rule in the constitution dictating how long a leadership contest has to be, but candidates must gather the necessary signatures and deliver a written nomination letter to the party president at least 90 days ahead of the vote.

A registered Liberal is defined as someone who has been a party member for 41 days before the vote and complies with registration requirements. 

All registered members get a vote, with the ballots weighted equally for each electoral district in Canada. Each district is worth 100 points.

Trudeau stays on

There is no mechanism within the Liberal party for caucus to remove Trudeau as leader in this circumstance, so the decision to stay or go rests solely with him. 

If Trudeau tries to weather the storm he could lead the party into the next election, which must take place by October. Given the opposition parties’ pledge to trigger an early election, Canadians could be going to the polls much sooner.

The Liberals appear to have a tough road ahead in trying to secure a fourth mandate, with public opinion polls suggesting the Conservatives have held a sizable lead for over a year.

2) Former Liberal cabinet minister Marco Mendicino not running in next election

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Sarah Ritchie and David Baxter, January 2, 2025

Liberal MP Marco Mendicino, former Minister of Public Safety, appears as a witness at the Foreign Interference Commission in Ottawa on Oct. 8, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang

Marco Mendicino, a former high-ranking cabinet minister in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, is the latest Liberal to say he will not run in the next federal election. 

In a statement posted on social media on Thursday evening, Mendicino expressed gratitude for the strong support of his constituents in the Toronto riding of Eglinton—Lawrence and said he will stay on as the member of Parliament until the next election.

“However, as much as I love the job, this is the right decision, at the right time, for me and my family,” the statement said. 

The former federal prosecutor was first elected in 2015, when Trudeau led the Liberals to a majority government, and was re-elected in 2019 and 2021.

Mendicino was made immigration minister in 2019 before moving to public safety in 2021. 

As public safety minister, he introduced firearms legislation in May 2022 that sought to turn the freeze on handgun sales into law, combat homemade guns and ban what the government called “assault-style” weapons. The bill — and especially the proposed definition of assault-style weapons — proved controversial. 

The legislation faced tough opposition in the House of Commons and the Senate before eventually becoming law in December 2023.

Mendicino was also in charge of the public safety file when the government invoked the Emergencies Act for the first time in early 2022. 

The unprecedented move came after “Freedom Convoy” protesters had occupied downtown Ottawa for weeks, filling the streets with vehicles and forcing businesses to close. A loosely organized group, the convoy was opposed to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions and the Trudeau government, and protesters also blocked a number of border crossings. 

Mendicino was dropped from cabinet in a shuffle in July 2023, along with former justice minister David Lametti.

Trudeau’s decision to move Mendicino out of his cabinet was widely seen as a rebuke for his handling of the transfer of notorious killer and dangerous offender Paul Bernardo from a maximum-security prison earlier that spring. 

Bernardo is serving an indeterminate life sentence for the kidnapping, torture and murders of teenagers Kristen French and Leslie Mahaffy in the early 1990s. 

The correctional service transferred Bernardo in May 2023 to a medium-security facility that specializes in the treatment of sexual offenders, sparking a public uproar. The Mahaffy and French families called for the decision to be reversed.

At the time, Mendicino said he found the independent correctional service’s decision “shocking and incomprehensible.” He also told reporters that his staff never told him Bernardo would be moved, although it was revealed that his office knew about the plan to transfer Bernardo three months before it happened. 

Mendicino later issued a series of directives to the correctional service, which aimed to ensure transfers of high-profile offenders were better communicated to the minister and to victims’ families. After an internal review, the correctional service found the decision to approve Bernardo’s transfer request was sound and followed all applicable laws and policies.

More recently, Mendicino has been a vocal supporter of the Jewish community and has pressured the Liberal government to do more to tackle rising antisemitism in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war.

In his statement, he said it is “no secret” that he has disagreed with the federal government’s approach to foreign policy, citing “our deteriorated relations with the State of Israel, our inadequate handling of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and our enfeebled role in the Middle East.”

“In political parties, there must be room for different views,” he wrote. “As a matter of principle, I have been consistently outspoken in my condemnation of the unjust targeting of the Jewish community, which is facing a tidal wave of antisemitism.”

Mendicino did not hint at what he may do after federal politics but said community leaders have told him they feel he should continue to play an active leadership role in Toronto. He also said he is passionate about the law and public policy. 

News that Mendicino will not be on the Liberal ballot in the next election comes after weeks of chaos in the Liberal caucus. Trudeau shuffled his cabinet in mid-December, after the bombshell news that Chrystia Freeland was stepping down as finance minister and deputy prime minister. 

Freeland said she and Trudeau disagreed over how to handle the country’s finances after U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose steep tariffs on Canadian goods. 

Trudeau replaced her with Dominic LeBlanc, who had been public safety minister since Mendicino’s ouster. 

He also had to replace Sean Fraser, Carla Qualtrough, Marie-Claude Bibeau, Dan Vandal and Filomena Tassi, all of whom do not plan to run in the next election. 

A growing number of Liberal MPs have been calling for Trudeau to step down as leader since Freeland’s resignation.

The next federal vote must happen before October.

3)’We need new leadership’: Atlantic Liberal caucus calls for Trudeau’s resignation

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By David Baxter, Dec. 29, 2024.

The Atlantic Liberal caucus is calling on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign as party leader in a letter expressing “deep concern” about the future of government. 

The letter dated Dec. 23 was shared publicly Sunday by New Brunswick MP Wayne Long, who has been saying since the fall that Trudeau should step down.

Long wrote in a Facebook post that he shared the letter for “openness and transparency.”

“If we are to have any chance in the next election, and prevent a Pierre Poilievre government, we need new leadership with a new vision for our party and the country,” Long wrote. 

Atlantic caucus chair and Nova Scotia MP Kody Blois penned the letter, saying it is no longer “tenable” for Trudeau to continue to lead the party. 

The letter notes that the country faces “instability” amid U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats and signals from opposition parties that they will declare non-confidence in Trudeau’s government at the first opportunity.

The letter thanks Trudeau for his nine years of service as prime minister, saying he leaves a “positive and consequential legacy.” It cautions Trudeau that could be undone if he stays on as leader. 

The letter comes less than two weeks after Chrystia Freeland’s resignation from Trudeau’s cabinet as finance minister and deputy prime minister.

“Our colleagues this morning expressed their deep personal affection for you, their pride in our work as a Liberal team, but also their deep concern that without a leadership change that progress will be lost under a Pierre Poilievre-lead government,” Blois wrote to Trudeau.

The letter concludes with a call for a national caucus meeting in early January so the Liberal MPs can discuss their next steps. 

Blois did not respond immediately to a request for comment. Trudeau is said to be thinking about his future during the holiday break.

Conservative MP John Williamson said Friday he plans to introduce a non-confidence motion at the next public accounts committee meeting on Jan. 7. 

If that motion is successful at committee, it would be forwarded to the House of Commons and could be voted on as soon as Jan. 30, triggering an election if it passes. 

The Conservatives brought forward three non-confidence motions during the fall sitting of the House of Commons, which the Liberals survived thanks to support from the NDP. 

However, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh now says that his party has lost confidence in the government and intends to bring forward a non-confidence motion in the new year, regardless of who is Liberal leader.