1) Trudeau insists he’s staying on as Liberal leader. But what if he changes his mind?

Courtesy Barrie360.com Canadian Press

By Canadian Press Staff, September 7, 2024

The Liberal caucus is set to meet in Nanaimo, B.C., next week for a retreat ahead of the fall parliamentary sitting. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau insists he will lead his party into the next election despite polls citing his unpopularity among Canadians. Here’s a look at what would happen if he decided to call it quits. 

Could Prime Minister Justin Trudeau step down?

Absolutely. But a decision to step down becomes a lot harder now that the New Democrats have pulled out of a supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals, which has helped keep the minority government in power. If Trudeau were to resign, the New Democrats could vote with the Conservatives on a confidence motion and trigger a snap election. That could leave the Liberal party without a leader as parties vie for votes. 

What would happen if he resigned?

An interim leader would be appointed and a leadership race would be triggered. The national president would have 27 days to call a meeting with the party’s board of directors. A leadership vote committee would also form to plan, organize and carry out the leadership vote. 

How quickly could a new leader be named?

It’s not typically a fast process. Trudeau won after a five-month race, but planning was in the works for years. 

By comparison, it took two years for the Conservatives to vote in a new leader after Stephen Harper’s resignation following the 2015 election.

The race that brought Pierre Poilievre to the helm of the Conservatives in 2022 lasted eight months.

The Liberal party constitution lays out the process for any potential nominee. They have at least 90 days before a leadership vote to announce their intention to run. They need at least 300 signatures from registered Liberals, 100 of which must come from Liberals in three different provinces. 

Could Trudeau resign but finish out his mandate?

Yes. But again, it would be complicated given a Liberal minority government and the threat of a snap election. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh acknowledged this week that an election could happen earlier than initially expected, which is currently set for October of 2025.  

Has a prime minister ever stepped down before?

Yes. In 2002, prime minister Jean Chrétien, facing a challenge from former finance minister and longtime rival Paul Martin, announced he would not lead the Liberals into the next election. 

And in 1993 prime minister Brian Mulroney resigned as Progressive Conservative leader. Kim Campbell, defence minister in Mulroney’s cabinet, won the contest to succeed him.  

Trudeau’s popularity has also faded, so why is this different?

Chrétien and Mulroney had majority governments, allowing leadership races to unfold without the threat of their administrations falling. 

Though there have been rumblings of discontent about Trudeau from within his party, he continues to enjoy the public support of the cabinet and caucus. The exception is Liberal MP Wayne Long, who has called for his resignation.

In addition, there is no obvious heir apparent to Trudeau. Among the rumoured contenders for his job are Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney.

Why were the U.S. Democrats able to replace their candidate for president? 

Canada and the U.S. have different systems of government, and Democrats and Liberals have their own sets of party rules.

Even though U.S. President Joe Biden was the Democrats’ presumptive nominee for president, he was not yet their official candidate. This allowed the Democrats to switch candidates before their convention in Chicago last month. 

It’s always up to Democratic delegates at their convention to formally vote for an official presidential nominee. 

And because there was no major challenge from within the party, it allowed for a smooth transition to replace Biden’s name on the ticket with that of U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris. 

Can Liberals oust Trudeau? 

Unlikely. The Liberal party’s constitution says the party leader can be removed only because of a triggering event such as an electoral loss, incapacitation or death.

2) Trudeau to face fretful caucus ahead of return to the House

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Laura Osman

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks at a Liberal Party fundraiser event in Halifax on Aug. 27, 2024. Trudeau will face a fretful and strained caucus in British Columbia Monday, who will be looking to him to finally reveal his plan to address the political free fall the party has endured for months. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Kelly Clark

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will face a fretful and strained caucus in British Columbia Monday, with MPs looking for him to finally reveal his plan to address the political purgatory the party has endured for months.

Several Liberal MPs privately and publicly demanded they meet as a team after the devastating byelection loss of a longtime political stronghold in Toronto last June, but the prime minister refused to convene his caucus before the fall.

Their political fortunes did not improve over the summer, and this week the Liberals took two more significant blows: the abrupt departure of the NDP from the political pact that prevented an early election, and the resignation of the Liberals’ national campaign director. 

Now, with two more byelections looming on Sept. 16 and a general election sometime in the next year, several caucus members who are still not comfortable speaking publicly told The Canadian Press they’re anxiously awaiting a game plan from the prime minister and his advisers that will help them save their seats.

The Liberals have floundered in the polls for more than a year now as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have capitalized on countrywide concerns about inflation, the cost of living and lack of available housing. 

Though Trudeau hasn’t yet addressed all of his MPs en masse, he has spoken with them in groups throughout June and July and stopped in on several regional caucus meetings ahead of the Nanaimo retreat.

“We’re focused on delivering for Canadians,” Trudeau said at a Quebec Liberal caucus meeting Thursday. 

He listed several programs in the works, including a national school food program and $10-a-day childcare, as well as national coverage for insulin and contraceptives, which the Liberals developed in partnership with the NDP.

“These are things that matter for Canadians,” he said, before he accused the NDP of focusing on politics while the Liberals are “focused on Canadians.”

Wayne Long, a Liberal MP representing a New Brunswick riding, says the problem is that Canadians appear to have tuned the prime minister out.

Long was the only Liberal member to publicly call for Trudeau’s resignation in the aftermath of the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection loss, though several other MPs expressed the same sentiment privately at the time.

Long shared his views with the prime minister again at the Atlantic caucus retreat ahead of Monday’s meeting. 

“I’m really worried the old ‘stay calm and carry on,’ which effectively is where we are, is not going to put us on a road to victory in the next election,” said Long, who does not plan to run again.

“If we’re going to mount a campaign that can beat Pierre Poilievre, in my opinion that campaign cannot be led by Justin Trudeau.”

Long fears a Trudeau campaign could lead to a Poilievre government that dismantles the prime minister’s nine-year legacy, piece by piece.

Long is one of several Liberal MPs who confirmed to The Canadian Press they do not plan to go the meeting in Nanaimo. But Mark Carney, the Bank of Canada governor whose name is routinely dropped around Ottawa as a possible successor to Trudeau as Liberal leader, will be in attendance. 

He’s expected to address MPs about the economy and a plan for growth. 

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s decision to back out of the supply and confidence deal certainly complicates any calls for the prime minister to step aside and allow a new leader to face off against Pierre Poilievre in the next election, since that election could now come at any time.

“It makes a much more precarious situation, because Singh probably holds the keys to when that election could be,” said Andrew Perez, a longtime Liberal with Perez Strategies, who also called for Trudeau’s resignation earlier this summer.

“Maybe it presents an argument for the pro-Trudeau side to say that we need to stick with Trudeau, because there’s no time.”

But while some caucus members describe feeling frustrated by the political tribulation, Long insists that those who are running again aren’t yet feeling defeated.

Speaking about those in the Atlantic caucus, he said “to a person, they’re ready to fight. They’re they’re ready to go.”

3) (Update) Liberals still support policies promised in deal with NDP, health minister says

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Canadian Press Staff, September 9, 2024

The Liberal government will still work on policies it promised to pursue under its now-defunct deal with the NDP, Health Minister Mark Holland said Monday.

A week ago, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh ended the pact between the New Democrats and the minority Liberals, before some of the measures they agreed to work on had come to fruition. 

Those include a yet-to-be-tabled safe long-term care act and the implementation of a pharmacare bill that is still being studied in the Senate. 

If the legislation passes, the government aims to negotiate deals with the provinces for the provision of free diabetes medication and birth control to anyone with a health card. Singh takes credit for forcing the Liberals into it. 

“These are things that we deeply cared about, where we found intersection with what the NDP was caring about,” Holland said at a news conference in Toronto. 

He was at the University of Toronto’s dental faculty, in its largest clinic, to share an update on a signature NDP-Liberal policy, the national dental-care program. 

Holland said nearly 650,000 people have taken advantage of the dental-care program so far and four-fifths of dental-care providers are participating. The update comes a month after the minister touted a 75 per cent participation rate.

Uptake was in doubt earlier this summer, when less than half of dentists, hygienists and denturists had registered to offer care and associations warned there were flaws in the program’s design.

Holland rejigged the process in July so dental offices could skip registering in advance and process individual claims instead.

The government began taking claims for seniors in May, and has since expanded eligibility for the program to qualifying children under the age of 18 and people who qualify for a disability tax credit.

Now that the New Democrats’ support in Parliament is not guaranteed, the Liberals will have to find a partner for each individual vote. 

“The NDP has made a political decision and that’s theirs to do, but now we’re operating on a case-by-case basis,” said Holland.

The minister said he talks “all the time” with the Bloc Québécois, along with the NDP, about how they can work together. Talks with the Conservatives haven’t been as productive, he said.

The Bloc indicated this week that it is willing to prop up the minority government in exchange for moves it sees as gains for Quebec. 

House leader Alain Therrien said in the lead-up to a caucus retreat that his party is happy to regain its balance of power, calling the current situation a “window of opportunity” to pursue its priorities. 

4) (Update) ‘I’m not going to listen to you’: Singh responds to Poilievre’s vote challenge

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Nojoud Al Mallees, September 11, 2024

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said Wednesday he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down the government.

“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.

“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”

Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to vote in favour of the non-confidence motion the Conservatives intend to bring against the Liberals “at the earliest possible opportunity.”

“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.

“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”

A non-confidence motion would likely trigger an election if the majority of MPs vote in favour of it. The House of Commons resumes Sept. 16 for the fall sitting, which is the first opportunity for the Conservatives to introduce such a motion.

While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote.

“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.

Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election.

Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, said there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.

“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.

New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall. The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.

It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat against a stiff challenge from the Conservatives.

Now that the NDP has left their deal with the Liberals, Singh is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives at the next federal election.

Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made similar arguments at his own Liberal caucus retreat in British Columbia Wednesday, indicating that he sees the next election as a choice between his government which is investing in Canadians so they can thrive, and the Conservatives who will cut programs that help Canadians do that.

The Canadian Press asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place if he forms government after the next election.

But the Conservatives did not answer the question.

Instead, Conservative health critic Stephen Ellis said in a statement that the government had “botched” the program.

“While the vast majority of Canadians don’t even qualify for this program, those who do may still have to pay out of pocket despite Trudeau’s claims,” Ellis said, adding that a Conservative government would rein in “inflationary waste” so that families can afford to go to the dentist.

Health Minister Mark Holland announced on Monday that nearly 650,000 people have taken advantage of the dental-care program so far and four-fifths of dental-care providers are participating.

On Wednesday, Singh announced that the NDP will bring forward a private member’s bill that will seek to ban corporations from buying up affordable housing, where rent is no more than 30 per cent of a household’s pre-tax income.

With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.

The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it has written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.

The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.