1) Trump’s remarks on Canada becoming the 51st state raise a lot of questions

Courtesy Barrie360.com and The Associated Press

By Will Weissert, February 12, 2025

President Donald Trump has repeatedly said Canada should be the 51st U.S. state as he proposes to erase the 5,525-mile-long border that separates the two countries. The very notion is ludicrous to Canadians and the hurdles to transforming it into a state are sky high.

But in Trump’s thinking, the traditional Lower 48 states would become the contiguous 50 as the Canadian territory between the U.S. mainland and Alaska disappears, leaving Hawaii as the only non-continental state.

“If people wanted to play the game right, it would be 100% certain that they’d become a state,” Trump said recently.

Canada at first reacted as though Trump must be joking, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said flatly his country would never be the 51st state. Trudeau more recently suggested behind closed doors that Trump’s sustained annexation calls may not be just light talk and appear to be “a real thing.”

Here’s what it would take to transform Canada from a nation to a state:

What’s the process for adding a state?

Congress has to approve accepting a new state.

It takes only a House majority, but Senate filibuster rules require a minimum of 60 votes in the 100-member chamber to bring a bill to the floor — an insurmountable threshold for all kinds of key legislation.

The Constitution’s Admissions Clause, Article IV, Section 3, states: “New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or Parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.”

Any measure approving a new state that clears Congress would also have to be signed into law by the president. In the case of Canada, Trump has made it clear he would be eager to do so.

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a Trump ally, joked on X when all 50 states certified Trump’s Electoral College victory last month, “They skipped Canada. We’ll fix that next time!”

No major legislation is advancing that would extend an invitation to statehood to America’s northern neighbor.

Doesn’t Canada have a say?

To say that most Canadian leaders aren’t interested in becoming a state would be an understatement. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, head of Canada’s most populous province, has spun out a counteroffer for Trump.

“How about, if we buy Alaska, and we’ll throw in Minnesota and Minneapolis at the same time,” he said, adding of Trump’s suggestion: “It’s not realistic.”

There have been multiple past pathways to statehood — from the absorption of the 13 colonies under the Articles of Confederation, to Congress formally agreeing to Texas’ request to be annexed as the 28th state.

Most states were added after Congress accepted a petition from some territorial legislative body, which could include legislatures that Congress itself suggested forming as part of the process.

Canada would probably have to have a referendum to gauge voters’ interests in joining the U.S. before more detailed aspects of the process could begin — and that’s almost certainly a non-starter.

While not addressing Canada as the 51st state directly, polling last year from Gallup and the Pew Research Center shows that Americans overwhelmingly have a positive view of Canada — and that while Canadians view the U.S. more positively than negatively, their view may be a little more muted.

Trump’s threats of tariffs have left Canadians feeling betrayed, and sports fans in Canada have begun voicing their displeasure by booing the U.S. national anthem at NBA and NHL games.

How would adding Canada affect U.S. elections?

Profoundly — and that’s without speculating about whether a majority of Canadians might back Democrats or Republicans for president and in Congress.

If Canada were to join the U.S. — again, a highly unlikely prospect — its population of 41.6 million would make it the largest state, outpacing California’s 39.4 million residents. Canada would get two senators but also 55 House seats based on the average congressional district population following the 2020 U.S. census, which was 761,169 individuals.

That would make Canada the presidential race’s richest prize, with 57 Electoral College delegates — exceeding California’s 54.

The Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929, meanwhile, caps the number of House seats at 435, meaning that other state delegations would have to shrink to make room for the new Canadian members of the House — and, by extension, its delegates to the Electoral College.

Suddenly, make-or-break swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would not look so important if there were tens of millions of Canadians waiting to be wooed with a presidential election on the line.

What about other potential new states?

Before Trump took office for his second term, debate around adding State No. 51 traditionally centered around Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C.

Puerto Rico is a U.S. commonwealth, and its voters have approved statehood in nonbinding referendums. Proposals to allow it become a state have repeatedly been introduced in Congress but not approved.

Washington, D.C., residents have voted in support of statehood and approved a state constitution and proposed boundaries. A bill admitting into the union the city as Washington, Douglass Commonwealth, passed the Democratic-controlled House as recently as 2021 but not the Senate.

Republicans now control both chambers, meaning they’ll likely oppose adding states that could be majority Democratic like Puerto Rico or D.C.

The nation’s capital gets three Electoral College votes for president under the Constitution’s 23rd Amendment, though it lacks voting representation in Congress. That’s why the Electoral College has 538 total delegates: 435 House members, 100 senators and three for D.C.

When was the last time the United States added a state?

Hawaii became the 50th state in 1959, nearly 18 years after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor.

The island chain about 2,400 miles (3,900 kilometers) from the mainland United States was annexed as a U.S. territory by Congress in 1898. Many bills offering Hawaii statehood were subsequently introduced, but they stalled for decades amid racial discrimination and partisan disagreement.

By the early 1950s, Hawaii leaned Republican, and Democrats opposed its admission to the union without including Alaska, which was seen as more favorable to their party.

Alaska, separated from the mainland U.S. by about 500 miles (800 kilometers) of Canadian territory, was eventually admitted as State No. 49 in January 1959. That opened the door for Congress to approve Hawaii’s statehood that March, and Hawaiians voted to join the union on Aug. 21, 1959.

It turned out that Alaska has backed Republicans in every presidential election except 1964, while Hawaii has voted Democratic every presidential cycle but 1972 and 1984.

2) (Update) White House advisers agree to share Canadian premiers’ message with Trump

Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press

By Kelly Geraldine Malone, February 12, 2025

A top White House adviser said Canada becoming the 51st state remains a consideration following a meeting with premiers where the Canadian leaders were cautioned to take U.S. President Donald Trump at his word.

The last-minute meeting with James Blair, deputy chief of staff, and Sergio Gor, director of the presidential personnel office, provided an opportunity for premiers to make Canada’s case directly to top Trump aides. 

“They committed to share our message of willingness to engage and to work on key areas of agreement, and that Canada would never be the 51st state,” said British Columbia Premier David Eby as he left the White House on Wednesday. 

Blair posted on social media that the meeting with the premiers was pleasant. But, he said, “we never agreed that Canada would not be the 51st state. We only agreed to share Premier Eby’s comments.”

“Further, we said the best way to understand President Trump’s position is to take what he says at face value,” Blair said

All 13 premiers descended on the United States capital this week for the first time ever. The diplomatic push reflects rising alarm among Canadians about Trump’s unpredictable tariff strategy.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Wednesday’s meeting was “very constructive.” Premiers were advised to continue conversations after key members are sworn in, including the president’s nominee to run the Commerce Department, Howard Lutnick, and Trump’s pick for top trade negotiator, Jamieson Greer.

“We’re grateful. We listened. We communicated and we look forward to further conversations,” Ford said. 

Trump returned to the White House less than a month ago with a tariff agenda that could rapidly realign global trade. Canada has been unable to escape the geopolitical upheaval triggered by its closest neighbour and largest trading partner.

Trump signed an order Monday that would impose 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, including imports from Canada, on March 12. Those duties could come on top of across-the-board tariffs on all Canadian imports, with a lower 10 per cent levy on Canadian energy, which were delayed until at least March 4.

A White House official confirmed that if both rounds of tariffs are implemented, the duties would stack on top of each other. That would mean a tariff of up to 50 per cent on Canadian steel and aluminum exports to the U.S.

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Wednesday that steel and aluminum tariffs may increase further and claimed the duties will “level the playing field.”

The president also indicated that an executive order for “reciprocal tariffs” will come this week. That would require that U.S. tariffs on imports match the tax rates charged by other countries.

Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc was also in Washington Wednesday, where he was set to meet Lutnick and Trump’s economic policy adviser Kevin Hassett at the White House. LeBlanc insisted there’s still time to talk Trump out of launching a trade war. 

LeBlanc first met Lutnick in November at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida after he and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau travelled there for a dinner with the president-elect just a few days after he made his initial tariff threat.

“I’m not pessimistic,” LeBlanc told reporters ahead of the meeting. “I’m optimistic by nature. I’m encouraged by the conversations we’ve had with Mr. Lutnick.”

Canada has promised to retaliate in kind if Trump moves on his promise of tariffs, and laid out a list of products that would be targeted after the president signed his initial executive order on duties on Feb. 1.

Ottawa put those retaliatory tariffs on hold two days later when Trump agreed to pause his tariff threat for a month, and after Trudeau outlined Canada’s plan to ramp up border security and appoint a fentanyl czar.

LeBlanc said Ottawa will not make the first move in a tariff war because it’s not a fight Canada wants.

Trudeau — speaking in Brussels, where he was meeting with European Union leaders — said there is a third threat of even more tariffs landing April 1 coming out of the executive order Trump signed on inauguration day looking at economic and trade imbalances between the two countries.

Trump has also floated the idea of taxing Canadian auto imports at between 50 and 100 per cent.

Provincial and territorial leaders remained optimistic Wednesday that diplomatic efforts can still push Trump away from implementing duties even as snowstorm forecasts compelled Prince Edward Island Premier Dennis King and Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston to go home early.

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said it’s not a time to be issuing ultimatums and instead called the premiers’ mission in Washington a “charm offensive.”

“The purpose of the trip here is diplomacy,” Kinew said. “It’s the warm and hearty handshake, making the case that the Canadian-American friendship has been the best in the world for decades and decades.”

The premiers met with Republican and Democrat lawmakers before heading to the White House. New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt said they explained the negative impacts tariffs will have on both Canadians and Americans.

“We’ve seen senators feel directly how it’s impacting their constituents and they have a lot of fear about the inflation and the price impacts to come, should these tariffs come to pass,” Holt said.

Experts have said that Trump’s tariff threats are likely a negotiating tactic meant to rattle Canada and Mexico ahead of a 2026 review of the trilateral continental trade pact.

The Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement was negotiated to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement during the first Trump administration.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said she believed the president when he said the first tariff threats were about border security and fentanyl, and she thinks Canada’s actions should satisfy Trump’s concerns.

“I think diplomacy is working,” Smith said. “I think that the fact that we got a 30-day reprieve was because we agreed to work on the cross-border problem of fentanyl.”

Monday’s tariff order was about the trade agreement, Smith said. She said Canada needs a federal election soon so that it has a mandate to return to the negotiating table.

“What I’ve seen from this president is he’s prepared to make a deal,” Smith said.

— With files from The Associated Press